Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a lowest temperature of 10°C in Shanghai on May 1, driven by confirmed early morning observations from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) stations, such as Xujiahui observatory, recording exactly 10°C amid a cooling trend following April 30's near-10°C minimum. This aligns with refined GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts initially projecting 11–13°C, influenced by northerly winds ushering cooler continental air and radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. Urban heat island effects in densely built Shanghai limit further drops. Scenarios challenging this include prolonged clear skies and light winds overnight enabling sub-10°C radiative cooling, though diurnal heating and model consensus deem it improbable as the day progresses toward resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLowest temperature in Shanghai on May 1?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 1?
10°C 100.0%
7°C or below <1%
8°C <1%
9°C <1%
$10,646 KL.
$10,646 KL.
May 1, 2026
7°C or below
No
8°C
No
9°C
No
10°C
Yes
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C or higher
No
10°C 100.0%
7°C or below <1%
8°C <1%
9°C <1%
$10,646 KL.
$10,646 KL.
May 1, 2026
7°C or below
$1,112 KL.
No
8°C
$825 KL.
No
9°C
$1,431 KL.
No
10°C
$3,560 KL.
Yes
11°C
$519 KL.
No
12°C
$1,156 KL.
No
13°C
$188 KL.
No
14°C
$357 KL.
No
15°C
$546 KL.
No
16°C
$361 KL.
No
17°C or higher
$590 KL.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a lowest temperature of 10°C in Shanghai on May 1, driven by confirmed early morning observations from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) stations, such as Xujiahui observatory, recording exactly 10°C amid a cooling trend following April 30's near-10°C minimum. This aligns with refined GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts initially projecting 11–13°C, influenced by northerly winds ushering cooler continental air and radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. Urban heat island effects in densely built Shanghai limit further drops. Scenarios challenging this include prolonged clear skies and light winds overnight enabling sub-10°C radiative cooling, though diurnal heating and model consensus deem it improbable as the day progresses toward resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Thị trường mở: Apr 29, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Khối lượng
$10,646Ngày kết thúc
May 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 29, 2026, 12:02 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Kết quả đề xuất: No
Không tranh chấp
Kết quả cuối cùng: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a lowest temperature of 10°C in Shanghai on May 1, driven by confirmed early morning observations from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) stations, such as Xujiahui observatory, recording exactly 10°C amid a cooling trend following April 30's near-10°C minimum. This aligns with refined GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts initially projecting 11–13°C, influenced by northerly winds ushering cooler continental air and radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. Urban heat island effects in densely built Shanghai limit further drops. Scenarios challenging this include prolonged clear skies and light winds overnight enabling sub-10°C radiative cooling, though diurnal heating and model consensus deem it improbable as the day progresses toward resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Khối lượng
$10,646Ngày kết thúc
May 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 29, 2026, 12:02 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Kết quả đề xuất: No
Không tranh chấp
Kết quả cuối cùng: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a lowest temperature of 10°C in Shanghai on May 1, driven by confirmed early morning observations from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) stations, such as Xujiahui observatory, recording exactly 10°C amid a cooling trend following April 30's near-10°C minimum. This aligns with refined GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts initially projecting 11–13°C, influenced by northerly winds ushering cooler continental air and radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. Urban heat island effects in densely built Shanghai limit further drops. Scenarios challenging this include prolonged clear skies and light winds overnight enabling sub-10°C radiative cooling, though diurnal heating and model consensus deem it improbable as the day progresses toward resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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