Incumbent Sen. Ed Markey's commanding lead in recent polling and sky-high favorability sustain his 82.5% implied probability as the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary winner on September 1, reflecting trader consensus on his enduring popularity despite age-related critiques from challenger Rep. Seth Moulton. A Suffolk University/Boston Globe survey from April 9-13 among likely primary voters showed Markey at 47%, Moulton at 30%, and 20% undecided, with Markey's 84% favorable rating underscoring incumbency advantages akin to his 2020 defeat of Joe Kennedy III. Rep. Ayanna Pressley's December 2025 decision to forgo the race and seek House reelection further consolidates support behind Markey, while Moulton's generational change pitch garners 12.5% amid low voter concern over age (only 26% cite it as a major factor). Longshot Alexander Rikleen trails at 0.3%.