Russia's Supreme Court disqualified Yabloko's federal list from the September 2026 State Duma ballot on August 10 following a Rodina lawsuit over alleged violations, removing the liberal opposition party from nationwide proportional representation where it would need at least 5% to secure seats. The Central Election Commission had registered the list in late July, yet the ruling eliminates any realistic path to clearing the threshold under current electoral rules. Traders assign 97% probability to "No" because party-list exclusion directly triggers market resolution to that outcome, consistent with historical patterns of administrative barriers facing non-parliamentary parties. An appeal or last-minute procedural reversal remains possible before voting begins on September 18–20, though such changes appear unlikely given the compressed timeline.