The June 2026 Social Security Trustees Report projects the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund will deplete reserves in the fourth quarter of 2032, one quarter earlier than prior estimates, with continuing payroll taxes then covering only about 78 percent of scheduled benefits. The combined OASI and Disability Insurance funds are expected to last until the third quarter of 2034. This accelerated timeline stems mainly from downward revisions to fertility rates (now 1.75 children per woman) and immigration levels, plus revenue losses from the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which permanently extended lower tax rates and reduced taxation of benefits. These updates widened the 75-year actuarial deficit to 4.42 percent of taxable payroll. With no major reform legislation enacted since the report and cash-flow deficits already widening, traders focus on whether Congress will act before reserves run low or allow automatic benefit reductions.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtSocial Security Insolvent by...?
Social Security Insolvent by...?
MỚI
Dec 31, 2028
December 31, 2027
11%
December 31, 2028
17%
$394 KL.
December 31, 2027
$349 KL.
11%
December 31, 2028
$45 KL.
17%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The June 2026 Social Security Trustees Report projects the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund will deplete reserves in the fourth quarter of 2032, one quarter earlier than prior estimates, with continuing payroll taxes then covering only about 78 percent of scheduled benefits. The combined OASI and Disability Insurance funds are expected to last until the third quarter of 2034. This accelerated timeline stems mainly from downward revisions to fertility rates (now 1.75 children per woman) and immigration levels, plus revenue losses from the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which permanently extended lower tax rates and reduced taxation of benefits. These updates widened the 75-year actuarial deficit to 4.42 percent of taxable payroll. With no major reform legislation enacted since the report and cash-flow deficits already widening, traders focus on whether Congress will act before reserves run low or allow automatic benefit reductions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Jun 9, 2026, 10:29 PM ET
Khối lượng
$394Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2029Thị trường mở
Jun 9, 2026, 10:29 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The June 2026 Social Security Trustees Report projects the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund will deplete reserves in the fourth quarter of 2032, one quarter earlier than prior estimates, with continuing payroll taxes then covering only about 78 percent of scheduled benefits. The combined OASI and Disability Insurance funds are expected to last until the third quarter of 2034. This accelerated timeline stems mainly from downward revisions to fertility rates (now 1.75 children per woman) and immigration levels, plus revenue losses from the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which permanently extended lower tax rates and reduced taxation of benefits. These updates widened the 75-year actuarial deficit to 4.42 percent of taxable payroll. With no major reform legislation enacted since the report and cash-flow deficits already widening, traders focus on whether Congress will act before reserves run low or allow automatic benefit reductions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$394Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2029Thị trường mở
Jun 9, 2026, 10:29 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...The June 2026 Social Security Trustees Report projects the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund will deplete reserves in the fourth quarter of 2032, one quarter earlier than prior estimates, with continuing payroll taxes then covering only about 78 percent of scheduled benefits. The combined OASI and Disability Insurance funds are expected to last until the third quarter of 2034. This accelerated timeline stems mainly from downward revisions to fertility rates (now 1.75 children per woman) and immigration levels, plus revenue losses from the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which permanently extended lower tax rates and reduced taxation of benefits. These updates widened the 75-year actuarial deficit to 4.42 percent of taxable payroll. With no major reform legislation enacted since the report and cash-flow deficits already widening, traders focus on whether Congress will act before reserves run low or allow automatic benefit reductions.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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