The 2026 Social Security Trustees Report, released June 9, projects the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund—the primary source for retirement benefits—will deplete in the fourth quarter of 2032, one quarter earlier than the prior forecast, due to lower fertility rates, reduced immigration assumptions, and other economic updates. The combined OASDI funds (including disability) remain on track for 2034 exhaustion, after which incoming payroll taxes would cover only about 78-83% of scheduled benefits without congressional action. Earlier Congressional Budget Office estimates aligned with the 2032 timeline, reinforcing trader focus on near-term insolvency risks absent reforms. No major legislative fixes have advanced recently, though demographic pressures and revenue shortfalls continue to shape the outlook.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtSocial Security Insolvent by...?
Social Security Insolvent by...?
MỚI
Jan 1, 2029
December 31, 2027
10%
December 31, 2028
23%
$200 KL.
December 31, 2027
$198 KL.
10%
December 31, 2028
$1 KL.
23%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 2026 Social Security Trustees Report, released June 9, projects the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund—the primary source for retirement benefits—will deplete in the fourth quarter of 2032, one quarter earlier than the prior forecast, due to lower fertility rates, reduced immigration assumptions, and other economic updates. The combined OASDI funds (including disability) remain on track for 2034 exhaustion, after which incoming payroll taxes would cover only about 78-83% of scheduled benefits without congressional action. Earlier Congressional Budget Office estimates aligned with the 2032 timeline, reinforcing trader focus on near-term insolvency risks absent reforms. No major legislative fixes have advanced recently, though demographic pressures and revenue shortfalls continue to shape the outlook.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Jun 9, 2026, 10:29 PM ET
Khối lượng
$200Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2029Thị trường mở
Jun 9, 2026, 10:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 2026 Social Security Trustees Report, released June 9, projects the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund—the primary source for retirement benefits—will deplete in the fourth quarter of 2032, one quarter earlier than the prior forecast, due to lower fertility rates, reduced immigration assumptions, and other economic updates. The combined OASDI funds (including disability) remain on track for 2034 exhaustion, after which incoming payroll taxes would cover only about 78-83% of scheduled benefits without congressional action. Earlier Congressional Budget Office estimates aligned with the 2032 timeline, reinforcing trader focus on near-term insolvency risks absent reforms. No major legislative fixes have advanced recently, though demographic pressures and revenue shortfalls continue to shape the outlook.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$200Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2029Thị trường mở
Jun 9, 2026, 10:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 Social Security Trustees Report, released June 9, projects the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund—the primary source for retirement benefits—will deplete in the fourth quarter of 2032, one quarter earlier than the prior forecast, due to lower fertility rates, reduced immigration assumptions, and other economic updates. The combined OASDI funds (including disability) remain on track for 2034 exhaustion, after which incoming payroll taxes would cover only about 78-83% of scheduled benefits without congressional action. Earlier Congressional Budget Office estimates aligned with the 2032 timeline, reinforcing trader focus on near-term insolvency risks absent reforms. No major legislative fixes have advanced recently, though demographic pressures and revenue shortfalls continue to shape the outlook.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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