The U.S. debt ceiling, raised by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion in July 2025 through budget reconciliation legislation, anchors trader consensus at 95.5% against default by year-end 2027, with public debt standing near $38.4 trillion as of early 2026 and Treasury extraordinary measures extending runway. This reflects historical precedent—Congress has adjusted the limit 78 times since 1960 to avert crisis—bolstered by bipartisan incentives to avoid catastrophic economic fallout, including market turmoil and credit rating downgrades. No recent brinkmanship has emerged in the past 30 days, per CBO deficit projections through 2036. Realistic shifts could arise from post-2026 midterm gridlock delaying action if the X-date approaches amid surging deficits or unexpected spending.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtUS defaults on debt by 2027?
US defaults on debt by 2027?
$14,750 KL.
$14,750 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
$14,750 KL.
$14,750 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.The U.S. debt ceiling, raised by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion in July 2025 through budget reconciliation legislation, anchors trader consensus at 95.5% against default by year-end 2027, with public debt standing near $38.4 trillion as of early 2026 and Treasury extraordinary measures extending runway. This reflects historical precedent—Congress has adjusted the limit 78 times since 1960 to avert crisis—bolstered by bipartisan incentives to avoid catastrophic economic fallout, including market turmoil and credit rating downgrades. No recent brinkmanship has emerged in the past 30 days, per CBO deficit projections through 2036. Realistic shifts could arise from post-2026 midterm gridlock delaying action if the X-date approaches amid surging deficits or unexpected spending.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Thị trường mở: Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
Khối lượng
$14,750Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.The U.S. debt ceiling, raised by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion in July 2025 through budget reconciliation legislation, anchors trader consensus at 95.5% against default by year-end 2027, with public debt standing near $38.4 trillion as of early 2026 and Treasury extraordinary measures extending runway. This reflects historical precedent—Congress has adjusted the limit 78 times since 1960 to avert crisis—bolstered by bipartisan incentives to avoid catastrophic economic fallout, including market turmoil and credit rating downgrades. No recent brinkmanship has emerged in the past 30 days, per CBO deficit projections through 2036. Realistic shifts could arise from post-2026 midterm gridlock delaying action if the X-date approaches amid surging deficits or unexpected spending.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Khối lượng
$14,750Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. debt ceiling, raised by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion in July 2025 through budget reconciliation legislation, anchors trader consensus at 95.5% against default by year-end 2027, with public debt standing near $38.4 trillion as of early 2026 and Treasury extraordinary measures extending runway. This reflects historical precedent—Congress has adjusted the limit 78 times since 1960 to avert crisis—bolstered by bipartisan incentives to avoid catastrophic economic fallout, including market turmoil and credit rating downgrades. No recent brinkmanship has emerged in the past 30 days, per CBO deficit projections through 2036. Realistic shifts could arise from post-2026 midterm gridlock delaying action if the X-date approaches amid surging deficits or unexpected spending.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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