Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 70-71°F as the highest temperature recorded at New York City's Central Park station (KNYC) on May 4, 2026, with 100% implied probability reflecting the official National Weather Service observations confirming this measurement amid mostly sunny skies and light winds under a persistent high-pressure ridge. NOAA forecast models, including the latest GFS and NAM runs released 24-48 hours prior, consistently projected daytime highs in the 68-72°F range, aligning with climatological May norms (average high ~70°F) and cool mid-level air masses suppressing warmer advection. This positioning is bolstered by hourly METAR reports peaking near 71°F in early afternoon. Realistic challenges would require rare post hoc data revisions from NOAA's quality control—such as sensor recalibrations—or disputes over the official resolution source, though historical precedents show such adjustments affect less than 1% of daily records. No further updates expected as final climate summary publishes soon.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in NYC on May 4?
Highest temperature in NYC on May 4?
70-71°F 100.0%
61°F or below <1%
62-63°F <1%
64-65°F <1%
$239,396 交易量
$239,396 交易量
2026-05-04
61°F or below
No
62-63°F
No
64-65°F
No
66-67°F
No
68-69°F
No
70-71°F
Yes
72-73°F
No
74-75°F
No
76-77°F
No
78-79°F
No
80°F or higher
No
70-71°F 100.0%
61°F or below <1%
62-63°F <1%
64-65°F <1%
$239,396 交易量
$239,396 交易量
2026-05-04
61°F or below
$7,409 交易量
No
62-63°F
$1,280 交易量
No
64-65°F
$11,251 交易量
No
66-67°F
$9,720 交易量
No
68-69°F
$9,169 交易量
No
70-71°F
$54,076 交易量
Yes
72-73°F
$93,221 交易量
No
74-75°F
$18,288 交易量
No
76-77°F
$16,815 交易量
No
78-79°F
$6,087 交易量
No
80°F or higher
$12,081 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 70-71°F as the highest temperature recorded at New York City's Central Park station (KNYC) on May 4, 2026, with 100% implied probability reflecting the official National Weather Service observations confirming this measurement amid mostly sunny skies and light winds under a persistent high-pressure ridge. NOAA forecast models, including the latest GFS and NAM runs released 24-48 hours prior, consistently projected daytime highs in the 68-72°F range, aligning with climatological May norms (average high ~70°F) and cool mid-level air masses suppressing warmer advection. This positioning is bolstered by hourly METAR reports peaking near 71°F in early afternoon. Realistic challenges would require rare post hoc data revisions from NOAA's quality control—such as sensor recalibrations—or disputes over the official resolution source, though historical precedents show such adjustments affect less than 1% of daily records. No further updates expected as final climate summary publishes soon.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： May 2, 2026, 12:10 AM ET
交易量
$239,396結束日期
2026-05-04市場開放時間
May 2, 2026, 12:10 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 70-71°F as the highest temperature recorded at New York City's Central Park station (KNYC) on May 4, 2026, with 100% implied probability reflecting the official National Weather Service observations confirming this measurement amid mostly sunny skies and light winds under a persistent high-pressure ridge. NOAA forecast models, including the latest GFS and NAM runs released 24-48 hours prior, consistently projected daytime highs in the 68-72°F range, aligning with climatological May norms (average high ~70°F) and cool mid-level air masses suppressing warmer advection. This positioning is bolstered by hourly METAR reports peaking near 71°F in early afternoon. Realistic challenges would require rare post hoc data revisions from NOAA's quality control—such as sensor recalibrations—or disputes over the official resolution source, though historical precedents show such adjustments affect less than 1% of daily records. No further updates expected as final climate summary publishes soon.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$239,396結束日期
2026-05-04市場開放時間
May 2, 2026, 12:10 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 70-71°F as the highest temperature recorded at New York City's Central Park station (KNYC) on May 4, 2026, with 100% implied probability reflecting the official National Weather Service observations confirming this measurement amid mostly sunny skies and light winds under a persistent high-pressure ridge. NOAA forecast models, including the latest GFS and NAM runs released 24-48 hours prior, consistently projected daytime highs in the 68-72°F range, aligning with climatological May norms (average high ~70°F) and cool mid-level air masses suppressing warmer advection. This positioning is bolstered by hourly METAR reports peaking near 71°F in early afternoon. Realistic challenges would require rare post hoc data revisions from NOAA's quality control—such as sensor recalibrations—or disputes over the official resolution source, though historical precedents show such adjustments affect less than 1% of daily records. No further updates expected as final climate summary publishes soon.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions