Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s death in late February 2026 during US-Israeli strikes triggered Iran’s first supreme leader succession in decades, with his son Mojtaba reportedly installed amid reports of injury and ongoing stability questions. State media confirmed the killing and mourning period while officials have worked to affirm Mojtaba’s authority and health. Trader focus centers on whether further leadership shifts, internal power struggles, or external pressure alter the post-Khamenei structure before any market resolution date. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments in the coming months could still influence perceptions of regime continuity.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$22,363,558 交易量
2026-08-31
8月31日
2%
9月30日
6%
12月31日
15%
2027年6月30日
22%
$22,363,558 交易量
8月31日
$605,141 交易量
2%
9月30日
$302,239 交易量
6%
12月31日
$3,729,365 交易量
15%
2027年6月30日
$180,436 交易量
22%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s death in late February 2026 during US-Israeli strikes triggered Iran’s first supreme leader succession in decades, with his son Mojtaba reportedly installed amid reports of injury and ongoing stability questions. State media confirmed the killing and mourning period while officials have worked to affirm Mojtaba’s authority and health. Trader focus centers on whether further leadership shifts, internal power struggles, or external pressure alter the post-Khamenei structure before any market resolution date. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments in the coming months could still influence perceptions of regime continuity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Jul 21, 2026, 11:05 AM ET
交易量
$22,363,558結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jul 21, 2026, 11:05 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s death in late February 2026 during US-Israeli strikes triggered Iran’s first supreme leader succession in decades, with his son Mojtaba reportedly installed amid reports of injury and ongoing stability questions. State media confirmed the killing and mourning period while officials have worked to affirm Mojtaba’s authority and health. Trader focus centers on whether further leadership shifts, internal power struggles, or external pressure alter the post-Khamenei structure before any market resolution date. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments in the coming months could still influence perceptions of regime continuity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$22,363,558結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jul 21, 2026, 11:05 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s death in late February 2026 during US-Israeli strikes triggered Iran’s first supreme leader succession in decades, with his son Mojtaba reportedly installed amid reports of injury and ongoing stability questions. State media confirmed the killing and mourning period while officials have worked to affirm Mojtaba’s authority and health. Trader focus centers on whether further leadership shifts, internal power struggles, or external pressure alter the post-Khamenei structure before any market resolution date. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments in the coming months could still influence perceptions of regime continuity.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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