**Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in U.S.-Israeli strikes on February 28, 2026, triggering immediate succession proceedings.** The Assembly of Experts elected his son Mojtaba Khamenei as the new leader on March 9 in a near-unanimous vote, establishing a hardline continuity backed by the IRGC amid wartime conditions. This rapid transition consolidated elite control despite decapitation strikes on senior officials, economic strain, and protests, with power now distributed among military and security figures around the new Supreme Leader. Trader consensus on later 2026–2027 resolution dates reflects the regime's demonstrated resilience and low near-term likelihood of further structural upheaval, though ongoing conflict and internal pressures remain key variables that could influence any additional shifts within the resolution window.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$22,347,412 交易量
8月31日
2%
9月30日
6%
12月31日
15%
2027年6月30日
22%
$22,347,412 交易量
8月31日
2%
9月30日
6%
12月31日
15%
2027年6月30日
22%
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間: Jul 21, 2026, 11:05 AM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...**Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in U.S.-Israeli strikes on February 28, 2026, triggering immediate succession proceedings.** The Assembly of Experts elected his son Mojtaba Khamenei as the new leader on March 9 in a near-unanimous vote, establishing a hardline continuity backed by the IRGC amid wartime conditions. This rapid transition consolidated elite control despite decapitation strikes on senior officials, economic strain, and protests, with power now distributed among military and security figures around the new Supreme Leader. Trader consensus on later 2026–2027 resolution dates reflects the regime's demonstrated resilience and low near-term likelihood of further structural upheaval, though ongoing conflict and internal pressures remain key variables that could influence any additional shifts within the resolution window.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於



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