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icon for 伊朗領導層改變... ？
政治·Mojtaba

伊朗領導層改變... ？

icon for 伊朗領導層改變... ？
政治·Mojtaba

伊朗領導層改變... ？

$22,362,291 交易量

2026-08-31
Polymarket

$22,362,291 交易量

Polymarket

8月31日

$604,241 交易量

2%

9月30日

$302,239 交易量

6%

12月31日

$3,728,998 交易量

15%

2027年6月30日

$180,436 交易量

22%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's supreme leader succession process accelerated dramatically after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's assassination in a February 28, 2026, airstrike attributed to Israel and the United States. Iranian authorities quickly activated constitutional provisions for a three-member interim leadership council that included the president and judiciary chief, while the Assembly of Experts convened a March 2026 vote that selected Mojtaba Khamenei as the new supreme leader. These events occurred amid ongoing regional tensions, domestic protests, and economic pressures that had already prompted earlier internal discussions about transition planning and potential candidates. Trader consensus on near-term leadership change by any specified cutoff reflects the completed February-March sequence and the absence of subsequent reversals or competing power centers, though markets remain sensitive to any signals of instability in the new arrangement or shifts in external diplomatic and military posture.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.

An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$22,362,291
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Jul 21, 2026, 11:05 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's supreme leader succession process accelerated dramatically after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's assassination in a February 28, 2026, airstrike attributed to Israel and the United States. Iranian authorities quickly activated constitutional provisions for a three-member interim leadership council that included the president and judiciary chief, while the Assembly of Experts convened a March 2026 vote that selected Mojtaba Khamenei as the new supreme leader. These events occurred amid ongoing regional tensions, domestic protests, and economic pressures that had already prompted earlier internal discussions about transition planning and potential candidates. Trader consensus on near-term leadership change by any specified cutoff reflects the completed February-March sequence and the absence of subsequent reversals or competing power centers, though markets remain sensitive to any signals of instability in the new arrangement or shifts in external diplomatic and military posture.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.

An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$22,362,291
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Jul 21, 2026, 11:05 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"伊朗領導層改變... ？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "2027年6月30日" at 22%, followed by "12月31日" at 15%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 22¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 22% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "伊朗領導層改變... ？" has generated $22.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 8, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "伊朗領導層改變... ？," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "伊朗領導層改變... ？" is "2027年6月30日" at 22%, meaning the market assigns a 22% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "12月31日" at 15%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "伊朗領導層改變... ？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.