Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei died in late February 2026 amid reported US-Israeli strikes that initiated broader conflict, prompting the Assembly of Experts to select his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor the following month. This marked the Islamic Republic's first dynastic transition at the apex of power, consolidating influence within the Office of the Supreme Leader and the IRGC during wartime instability. The new leader operates amid ongoing security challenges, regional tensions, and domestic pressures, with decision-making reflecting greater elite consensus than under the prior structure. Scheduled developments include potential escalations in the 2026 Iran conflict, nuclear negotiations, and internal regime assessments that could shape future leadership stability or further shifts before year-end resolution windows.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$21,861,835 交易量
8月31日
4%
9月30日
11%
12月31日
23%
2027年6月30日
31%
$21,861,835 交易量
8月31日
4%
9月30日
11%
12月31日
23%
2027年6月30日
31%
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間: Jul 21, 2026, 11:05 AM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei died in late February 2026 amid reported US-Israeli strikes that initiated broader conflict, prompting the Assembly of Experts to select his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor the following month. This marked the Islamic Republic's first dynastic transition at the apex of power, consolidating influence within the Office of the Supreme Leader and the IRGC during wartime instability. The new leader operates amid ongoing security challenges, regional tensions, and domestic pressures, with decision-making reflecting greater elite consensus than under the prior structure. Scheduled developments include potential escalations in the 2026 Iran conflict, nuclear negotiations, and internal regime assessments that could shape future leadership stability or further shifts before year-end resolution windows.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於



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