Ali Khamenei's assassination in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli military strikes triggered Iran's constitutional succession process under Article 111, activating a temporary leadership council before the Assembly of Experts selected his son Mojtaba as the new supreme leader in early March. This dynastic transition occurred amid active conflict, economic strain, and internal elite consolidation favoring continuity with hardline elements tied to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Trader assessments of any further near-term leadership shift by late 2026 now hinge on Mojtaba's health and visibility, ongoing regional military dynamics, potential external pressures, and signs of elite fractures or public unrest that could reopen succession questions.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$22,363,762 交易量
2026-08-31
8月31日
2%
9月30日
6%
12月31日
16%
2027年6月30日
22%
$22,363,762 交易量
8月31日
$605,141 交易量
2%
9月30日
$302,239 交易量
6%
12月31日
$3,729,565 交易量
16%
2027年6月30日
$180,440 交易量
22%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ali Khamenei's assassination in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli military strikes triggered Iran's constitutional succession process under Article 111, activating a temporary leadership council before the Assembly of Experts selected his son Mojtaba as the new supreme leader in early March. This dynastic transition occurred amid active conflict, economic strain, and internal elite consolidation favoring continuity with hardline elements tied to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Trader assessments of any further near-term leadership shift by late 2026 now hinge on Mojtaba's health and visibility, ongoing regional military dynamics, potential external pressures, and signs of elite fractures or public unrest that could reopen succession questions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Jul 21, 2026, 11:05 AM ET
交易量
$22,363,762結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jul 21, 2026, 11:05 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ali Khamenei's assassination in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli military strikes triggered Iran's constitutional succession process under Article 111, activating a temporary leadership council before the Assembly of Experts selected his son Mojtaba as the new supreme leader in early March. This dynastic transition occurred amid active conflict, economic strain, and internal elite consolidation favoring continuity with hardline elements tied to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Trader assessments of any further near-term leadership shift by late 2026 now hinge on Mojtaba's health and visibility, ongoing regional military dynamics, potential external pressures, and signs of elite fractures or public unrest that could reopen succession questions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$22,363,762結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jul 21, 2026, 11:05 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ali Khamenei's assassination in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli military strikes triggered Iran's constitutional succession process under Article 111, activating a temporary leadership council before the Assembly of Experts selected his son Mojtaba as the new supreme leader in early March. This dynastic transition occurred amid active conflict, economic strain, and internal elite consolidation favoring continuity with hardline elements tied to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Trader assessments of any further near-term leadership shift by late 2026 now hinge on Mojtaba's health and visibility, ongoing regional military dynamics, potential external pressures, and signs of elite fractures or public unrest that could reopen succession questions.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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