The closely matched probabilities across multiple turnout buckets in the New Mexico U.S. Senate election reflect the race's limited competitiveness three months before the November 3, 2026, general election. Incumbent Democrat Ben Ray Luján faces only nominal Republican opposition from write-in nominee Larry Marker following an uncontested primary process that produced no ballot-qualified GOP candidate. This dynamic typically suppresses voter mobilization and turnout relative to more contested Senate races, with historical patterns in safe Democratic seats showing moderate participation absent major campaign spending or national attention. Absent recent polling shifts, scandals, or external events that could boost engagement among key voting blocs, trader consensus remains divided on whether total ballots will exceed 850,000 or settle in the 550,000–750,000 range typical for off-year New Mexico elections.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於550K-600K 45%
75萬-80萬 44%
60萬-65萬 44%
80萬 - 85萬 43%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
少於55萬
41%
550K-600K
45%
60萬-65萬
44%
650,000-700,000
39%
70萬-75萬
42%
75萬-80萬
44%
80萬 - 85萬
43%
85萬+
39%
550K-600K 45%
75萬-80萬 44%
60萬-65萬 44%
80萬 - 85萬 43%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
少於55萬
$0 交易量
41%
550K-600K
$0 交易量
45%
60萬-65萬
$0 交易量
44%
650,000-700,000
$0 交易量
39%
70萬-75萬
$0 交易量
42%
75萬-80萬
$0 交易量
44%
80萬 - 85萬
$0 交易量
43%
85萬+
$0 交易量
39%
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from New Mexico.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from New Mexico, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The closely matched probabilities across multiple turnout buckets in the New Mexico U.S. Senate election reflect the race's limited competitiveness three months before the November 3, 2026, general election. Incumbent Democrat Ben Ray Luján faces only nominal Republican opposition from write-in nominee Larry Marker following an uncontested primary process that produced no ballot-qualified GOP candidate. This dynamic typically suppresses voter mobilization and turnout relative to more contested Senate races, with historical patterns in safe Democratic seats showing moderate participation absent major campaign spending or national attention. Absent recent polling shifts, scandals, or external events that could boost engagement among key voting blocs, trader consensus remains divided on whether total ballots will exceed 850,000 or settle in the 550,000–750,000 range typical for off-year New Mexico elections.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from New Mexico.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from New Mexico, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from New Mexico, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Aug 18, 2026, 10:23 AM ET
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Aug 18, 2026, 10:23 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from New Mexico.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from New Mexico, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The closely matched probabilities across multiple turnout buckets in the New Mexico U.S. Senate election reflect the race's limited competitiveness three months before the November 3, 2026, general election. Incumbent Democrat Ben Ray Luján faces only nominal Republican opposition from write-in nominee Larry Marker following an uncontested primary process that produced no ballot-qualified GOP candidate. This dynamic typically suppresses voter mobilization and turnout relative to more contested Senate races, with historical patterns in safe Democratic seats showing moderate participation absent major campaign spending or national attention. Absent recent polling shifts, scandals, or external events that could boost engagement among key voting blocs, trader consensus remains divided on whether total ballots will exceed 850,000 or settle in the 550,000–750,000 range typical for off-year New Mexico elections.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from New Mexico.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from New Mexico, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from New Mexico, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Aug 18, 2026, 10:23 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched probabilities across multiple turnout buckets in the New Mexico U.S. Senate election reflect the race's limited competitiveness three months before the November 3, 2026, general election. Incumbent Democrat Ben Ray Luján faces only nominal Republican opposition from write-in nominee Larry Marker following an uncontested primary process that produced no ballot-qualified GOP candidate. This dynamic typically suppresses voter mobilization and turnout relative to more contested Senate races, with historical patterns in safe Democratic seats showing moderate participation absent major campaign spending or national attention. Absent recent polling shifts, scandals, or external events that could boost engagement among key voting blocs, trader consensus remains divided on whether total ballots will exceed 850,000 or settle in the 550,000–750,000 range typical for off-year New Mexico elections.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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