In the 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial race between incumbent Democrat Josh Shapiro and Republican challenger Stacy Garrity, prediction markets assign nearly identical probabilities across turnout brackets from under 4 million to 6.5 million-plus total votes cast on November 3. Primary results showed notably higher Democratic participation than Republican, with over 1.1 million ballots for Shapiro versus roughly 640,000 for Garrity, highlighting an early enthusiasm differential that could influence general election mobilization. Recent polling averages place Shapiro ahead by 15-20 points, yet off-year contests often see variable participation driven by campaign spending gaps, mail and early voting access, registration trends, and external national events. The even distribution across bins reflects trader uncertainty over how effectively each side converts polling leads and fundraising advantages into actual ballot turnout amid standard midterm dynamics.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於500萬-550萬 44%
550萬-600萬 44%
少於 4M 44%
450萬至500萬 43%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
少於 4M
44%
400萬至450萬
40%
450萬至500萬
43%
500萬-550萬
44%
550萬-600萬
44%
600萬-650萬
43%
650萬+
43%
500萬-550萬 44%
550萬-600萬 44%
少於 4M 44%
450萬至500萬 43%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
少於 4M
$0 交易量
44%
400萬至450萬
$0 交易量
40%
450萬至500萬
$0 交易量
43%
500萬-550萬
$0 交易量
44%
550萬-600萬
$0 交易量
44%
600萬-650萬
$0 交易量
43%
650萬+
$0 交易量
43%
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Pennsylvania.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Pennsylvania, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.In the 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial race between incumbent Democrat Josh Shapiro and Republican challenger Stacy Garrity, prediction markets assign nearly identical probabilities across turnout brackets from under 4 million to 6.5 million-plus total votes cast on November 3. Primary results showed notably higher Democratic participation than Republican, with over 1.1 million ballots for Shapiro versus roughly 640,000 for Garrity, highlighting an early enthusiasm differential that could influence general election mobilization. Recent polling averages place Shapiro ahead by 15-20 points, yet off-year contests often see variable participation driven by campaign spending gaps, mail and early voting access, registration trends, and external national events. The even distribution across bins reflects trader uncertainty over how effectively each side converts polling leads and fundraising advantages into actual ballot turnout amid standard midterm dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Pennsylvania.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Pennsylvania, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Pennsylvania, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Aug 18, 2026, 10:23 AM ET
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Aug 18, 2026, 10:23 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Pennsylvania.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Pennsylvania, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.In the 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial race between incumbent Democrat Josh Shapiro and Republican challenger Stacy Garrity, prediction markets assign nearly identical probabilities across turnout brackets from under 4 million to 6.5 million-plus total votes cast on November 3. Primary results showed notably higher Democratic participation than Republican, with over 1.1 million ballots for Shapiro versus roughly 640,000 for Garrity, highlighting an early enthusiasm differential that could influence general election mobilization. Recent polling averages place Shapiro ahead by 15-20 points, yet off-year contests often see variable participation driven by campaign spending gaps, mail and early voting access, registration trends, and external national events. The even distribution across bins reflects trader uncertainty over how effectively each side converts polling leads and fundraising advantages into actual ballot turnout amid standard midterm dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Pennsylvania.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Pennsylvania, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Pennsylvania, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Aug 18, 2026, 10:23 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...In the 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial race between incumbent Democrat Josh Shapiro and Republican challenger Stacy Garrity, prediction markets assign nearly identical probabilities across turnout brackets from under 4 million to 6.5 million-plus total votes cast on November 3. Primary results showed notably higher Democratic participation than Republican, with over 1.1 million ballots for Shapiro versus roughly 640,000 for Garrity, highlighting an early enthusiasm differential that could influence general election mobilization. Recent polling averages place Shapiro ahead by 15-20 points, yet off-year contests often see variable participation driven by campaign spending gaps, mail and early voting access, registration trends, and external national events. The even distribution across bins reflects trader uncertainty over how effectively each side converts polling leads and fundraising advantages into actual ballot turnout amid standard midterm dynamics.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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