Madeleine Dean holds a commanding lead in the PA-04 House race due to the district's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in its D+8 Cook Partisan Voter Index and unanimous "Solid Democratic" or "Safe Democratic" ratings from forecasters. As a four-term incumbent serving on the Appropriations and Foreign Affairs committees, Dean benefits from established name recognition and fundraising advantages in a suburban Philadelphia area covering most of Montgomery County and parts of Berks County. Aurora Stuski, a first-time Republican nominee who advanced unopposed in the May primary, faces structural barriers in a district that has favored Democrats in recent cycles. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with historical base rates for safe seats, though late developments such as unexpected scandals, health events, or sharp national shifts could theoretically alter outcomes before the November 3 general election.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$19,259 交易量
$19,259 交易量
2026-11-02
馬德琳·迪恩（民主黨）
95%
Aurora Stuski（共和黨）
6%
$19,259 交易量
$19,259 交易量
2026-11-02
馬德琳·迪恩（民主黨）
$6,759 交易量
95%
Aurora Stuski（共和黨）
$12,501 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Madeleine Dean holds a commanding lead in the PA-04 House race due to the district's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in its D+8 Cook Partisan Voter Index and unanimous "Solid Democratic" or "Safe Democratic" ratings from forecasters. As a four-term incumbent serving on the Appropriations and Foreign Affairs committees, Dean benefits from established name recognition and fundraising advantages in a suburban Philadelphia area covering most of Montgomery County and parts of Berks County. Aurora Stuski, a first-time Republican nominee who advanced unopposed in the May primary, faces structural barriers in a district that has favored Democrats in recent cycles. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with historical base rates for safe seats, though late developments such as unexpected scandals, health events, or sharp national shifts could theoretically alter outcomes before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
交易量
$19,259結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Madeleine Dean holds a commanding lead in the PA-04 House race due to the district's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in its D+8 Cook Partisan Voter Index and unanimous "Solid Democratic" or "Safe Democratic" ratings from forecasters. As a four-term incumbent serving on the Appropriations and Foreign Affairs committees, Dean benefits from established name recognition and fundraising advantages in a suburban Philadelphia area covering most of Montgomery County and parts of Berks County. Aurora Stuski, a first-time Republican nominee who advanced unopposed in the May primary, faces structural barriers in a district that has favored Democrats in recent cycles. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with historical base rates for safe seats, though late developments such as unexpected scandals, health events, or sharp national shifts could theoretically alter outcomes before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$19,259結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETMadeleine Dean holds a commanding lead in the PA-04 House race due to the district's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in its D+8 Cook Partisan Voter Index and unanimous "Solid Democratic" or "Safe Democratic" ratings from forecasters. As a four-term incumbent serving on the Appropriations and Foreign Affairs committees, Dean benefits from established name recognition and fundraising advantages in a suburban Philadelphia area covering most of Montgomery County and parts of Berks County. Aurora Stuski, a first-time Republican nominee who advanced unopposed in the May primary, faces structural barriers in a district that has favored Democrats in recent cycles. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with historical base rates for safe seats, though late developments such as unexpected scandals, health events, or sharp national shifts could theoretically alter outcomes before the November 3 general election.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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