Incumbent Laura Gillen holds a commanding lead in the NY-04 House race due to her narrow 2024 victory in the suburban Long Island swing district, combined with a substantial Democratic registration edge of over 70,000 voters and strong fundraising. Forecasters rate the seat Lean or Tilt Democratic, and the Republican primary winner, Jeanine Driscoll—a local tax receiver focused on affordability and SALT deduction expansion—has not yet narrowed the gap in a race that flipped between parties in recent cycles. Traders price Gillen’s position as the consensus outcome ahead of the November 3 general election. Late developments such as major polling shifts, effective attacks on Gillen’s legislative record, unusually high Republican turnout, or national political changes could still alter the trajectory in this competitive district.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於最新
最新
2026-11-03
蘿拉·吉倫（民主黨）
93%
Jeanine Driscoll（共和黨）
3%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
蘿拉·吉倫（民主黨）
$3,361 交易量
93%
Jeanine Driscoll（共和黨）
$2,047 交易量
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Laura Gillen holds a commanding lead in the NY-04 House race due to her narrow 2024 victory in the suburban Long Island swing district, combined with a substantial Democratic registration edge of over 70,000 voters and strong fundraising. Forecasters rate the seat Lean or Tilt Democratic, and the Republican primary winner, Jeanine Driscoll—a local tax receiver focused on affordability and SALT deduction expansion—has not yet narrowed the gap in a race that flipped between parties in recent cycles. Traders price Gillen’s position as the consensus outcome ahead of the November 3 general election. Late developments such as major polling shifts, effective attacks on Gillen’s legislative record, unusually high Republican turnout, or national political changes could still alter the trajectory in this competitive district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
交易量
$5,408結束日期
2026-11-04市場開放時間
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Laura Gillen holds a commanding lead in the NY-04 House race due to her narrow 2024 victory in the suburban Long Island swing district, combined with a substantial Democratic registration edge of over 70,000 voters and strong fundraising. Forecasters rate the seat Lean or Tilt Democratic, and the Republican primary winner, Jeanine Driscoll—a local tax receiver focused on affordability and SALT deduction expansion—has not yet narrowed the gap in a race that flipped between parties in recent cycles. Traders price Gillen’s position as the consensus outcome ahead of the November 3 general election. Late developments such as major polling shifts, effective attacks on Gillen’s legislative record, unusually high Republican turnout, or national political changes could still alter the trajectory in this competitive district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$5,408結束日期
2026-11-04市場開放時間
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETIncumbent Laura Gillen holds a commanding lead in the NY-04 House race due to her narrow 2024 victory in the suburban Long Island swing district, combined with a substantial Democratic registration edge of over 70,000 voters and strong fundraising. Forecasters rate the seat Lean or Tilt Democratic, and the Republican primary winner, Jeanine Driscoll—a local tax receiver focused on affordability and SALT deduction expansion—has not yet narrowed the gap in a race that flipped between parties in recent cycles. Traders price Gillen’s position as the consensus outcome ahead of the November 3 general election. Late developments such as major polling shifts, effective attacks on Gillen’s legislative record, unusually high Republican turnout, or national political changes could still alter the trajectory in this competitive district.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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