Recent polling averages place the Texas U.S. Senate contest in a statistical dead heat, with James Talarico holding narrow edges in multiple August surveys from outlets such as Emerson College and Texas Southern University. This tightness stems from Ken Paxton’s May primary runoff victory over incumbent John Cornyn, aided by a late Trump endorsement, which consolidated much of the Republican base but left some moderate and independent voters open. Talarico’s Democratic primary win over Jasmine Crockett and stronger performance among younger voters, moderates, and independents have offset traditional Republican advantages on issues like immigration and the economy. The Cook Political Report’s shift to toss-up status reflects these dynamics, keeping trader probabilities balanced near 50 percent ahead of November.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$856,258 交易量
$856,258 交易量
2026-11-02
詹姆斯·塔拉里科（民主黨）
52%
肯·帕克斯頓（共和黨）
50%
$856,258 交易量
$856,258 交易量
2026-11-02
詹姆斯·塔拉里科（民主黨）
$410,719 交易量
52%
肯·帕克斯頓（共和黨）
$445,539 交易量
50%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Recent polling averages place the Texas U.S. Senate contest in a statistical dead heat, with James Talarico holding narrow edges in multiple August surveys from outlets such as Emerson College and Texas Southern University. This tightness stems from Ken Paxton’s May primary runoff victory over incumbent John Cornyn, aided by a late Trump endorsement, which consolidated much of the Republican base but left some moderate and independent voters open. Talarico’s Democratic primary win over Jasmine Crockett and stronger performance among younger voters, moderates, and independents have offset traditional Republican advantages on issues like immigration and the economy. The Cook Political Report’s shift to toss-up status reflects these dynamics, keeping trader probabilities balanced near 50 percent ahead of November.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市場開放時間： Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ET
交易量
$856,258結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Recent polling averages place the Texas U.S. Senate contest in a statistical dead heat, with James Talarico holding narrow edges in multiple August surveys from outlets such as Emerson College and Texas Southern University. This tightness stems from Ken Paxton’s May primary runoff victory over incumbent John Cornyn, aided by a late Trump endorsement, which consolidated much of the Republican base but left some moderate and independent voters open. Talarico’s Democratic primary win over Jasmine Crockett and stronger performance among younger voters, moderates, and independents have offset traditional Republican advantages on issues like immigration and the economy. The Cook Political Report’s shift to toss-up status reflects these dynamics, keeping trader probabilities balanced near 50 percent ahead of November.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$856,258結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polling averages place the Texas U.S. Senate contest in a statistical dead heat, with James Talarico holding narrow edges in multiple August surveys from outlets such as Emerson College and Texas Southern University. This tightness stems from Ken Paxton’s May primary runoff victory over incumbent John Cornyn, aided by a late Trump endorsement, which consolidated much of the Republican base but left some moderate and independent voters open. Talarico’s Democratic primary win over Jasmine Crockett and stronger performance among younger voters, moderates, and independents have offset traditional Republican advantages on issues like immigration and the economy. The Cook Political Report’s shift to toss-up status reflects these dynamics, keeping trader probabilities balanced near 50 percent ahead of November.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions