Incumbent Republican Pat Fallon secured his party's nomination with over 80% of the primary vote in March 2026, facing Democrat Jason Pearce in the November 3 general election. Texas's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+12 to R+16 and consistent large margins for GOP candidates, including Fallon's 68% share in 2024. The 2025 mid-decade redistricting further reinforced Republican advantages across the state map. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican. Trader consensus at 94.5% for the Republican nominee aligns with these structural factors and the absence of competitive Democratic infrastructure or recent polling shifts. A major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or unprecedented national Democratic surge could narrow the outcome, though such developments remain low-probability based on current evidence.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$39,471 交易量
$39,471 交易量
2026-11-02
共和黨
95%
民主黨
6%
$39,471 交易量
$39,471 交易量
2026-11-02
共和黨
$21,672 交易量
95%
民主黨
$17,800 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Pat Fallon secured his party's nomination with over 80% of the primary vote in March 2026, facing Democrat Jason Pearce in the November 3 general election. Texas's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+12 to R+16 and consistent large margins for GOP candidates, including Fallon's 68% share in 2024. The 2025 mid-decade redistricting further reinforced Republican advantages across the state map. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican. Trader consensus at 94.5% for the Republican nominee aligns with these structural factors and the absence of competitive Democratic infrastructure or recent polling shifts. A major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or unprecedented national Democratic surge could narrow the outcome, though such developments remain low-probability based on current evidence.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
交易量
$39,471結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Pat Fallon secured his party's nomination with over 80% of the primary vote in March 2026, facing Democrat Jason Pearce in the November 3 general election. Texas's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+12 to R+16 and consistent large margins for GOP candidates, including Fallon's 68% share in 2024. The 2025 mid-decade redistricting further reinforced Republican advantages across the state map. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican. Trader consensus at 94.5% for the Republican nominee aligns with these structural factors and the absence of competitive Democratic infrastructure or recent polling shifts. A major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or unprecedented national Democratic surge could narrow the outcome, though such developments remain low-probability based on current evidence.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$39,471結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Pat Fallon secured his party's nomination with over 80% of the primary vote in March 2026, facing Democrat Jason Pearce in the November 3 general election. Texas's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+12 to R+16 and consistent large margins for GOP candidates, including Fallon's 68% share in 2024. The 2025 mid-decade redistricting further reinforced Republican advantages across the state map. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican. Trader consensus at 94.5% for the Republican nominee aligns with these structural factors and the absence of competitive Democratic infrastructure or recent polling shifts. A major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or unprecedented national Democratic surge could narrow the outcome, though such developments remain low-probability based on current evidence.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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