Incumbent Democrat Josh Shapiro holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Pennsylvania governor race, reflected in trader consensus around 94% probability, driven by consistent double-digit margins in July polling against Republican challenger Stacy Garrity. Shapiro's reelection bid benefits from incumbency advantages, prior statewide victories, and a political landscape where Democratic performance has held steady in this swing state. Garrity, the state treasurer, secured her party's nomination without primary opposition but trails significantly in head-to-head surveys. Key upcoming factors include general election dynamics through November, potential shifts in voter turnout or economic conditions, and any late-campaign developments that could alter the current balance before ballots are cast.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$19,584 交易量
$19,584 交易量
2026-11-03
民主黨
94%
共和黨
6%
$19,584 交易量
$19,584 交易量
2026-11-03
民主黨
$7,228 交易量
94%
共和黨
$12,356 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democrat Josh Shapiro holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Pennsylvania governor race, reflected in trader consensus around 94% probability, driven by consistent double-digit margins in July polling against Republican challenger Stacy Garrity. Shapiro's reelection bid benefits from incumbency advantages, prior statewide victories, and a political landscape where Democratic performance has held steady in this swing state. Garrity, the state treasurer, secured her party's nomination without primary opposition but trails significantly in head-to-head surveys. Key upcoming factors include general election dynamics through November, potential shifts in voter turnout or economic conditions, and any late-campaign developments that could alter the current balance before ballots are cast.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市場開放時間： Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ET
交易量
$19,584結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democrat Josh Shapiro holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Pennsylvania governor race, reflected in trader consensus around 94% probability, driven by consistent double-digit margins in July polling against Republican challenger Stacy Garrity. Shapiro's reelection bid benefits from incumbency advantages, prior statewide victories, and a political landscape where Democratic performance has held steady in this swing state. Garrity, the state treasurer, secured her party's nomination without primary opposition but trails significantly in head-to-head surveys. Key upcoming factors include general election dynamics through November, potential shifts in voter turnout or economic conditions, and any late-campaign developments that could alter the current balance before ballots are cast.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$19,584結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Josh Shapiro holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Pennsylvania governor race, reflected in trader consensus around 94% probability, driven by consistent double-digit margins in July polling against Republican challenger Stacy Garrity. Shapiro's reelection bid benefits from incumbency advantages, prior statewide victories, and a political landscape where Democratic performance has held steady in this swing state. Garrity, the state treasurer, secured her party's nomination without primary opposition but trails significantly in head-to-head surveys. Key upcoming factors include general election dynamics through November, potential shifts in voter turnout or economic conditions, and any late-campaign developments that could alter the current balance before ballots are cast.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions