Incumbent Republican Bruce Westerman holds a commanding position in Arkansas’s 4th congressional district, a rural area with an R+20 Cook Partisan Voter Index that delivered him 72.9% of the vote in 2024. Westerman advanced unopposed through the Republican primary, while Democrat James Russell secured his party’s nomination after a contested primary. Multiple nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as Solid or Safe Republican. Traders’ 93.5% consensus for a Republican victory aligns with the district’s consistent partisan lean, Westerman’s incumbency advantages, and limited campaign activity to date. A significant shift would require an unforeseen national Democratic surge, a major candidate-specific development such as a health event or scandal, or unusually high turnout dynamics that overcome the structural Republican edge.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$23,849 交易量
$23,849 交易量
2026-11-02
布魯斯·韋斯特曼（共和黨）
94%
詹姆斯·羅素（民主黨）
5%
$23,849 交易量
$23,849 交易量
2026-11-02
布魯斯·韋斯特曼（共和黨）
$12,499 交易量
94%
詹姆斯·羅素（民主黨）
$11,350 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Bruce Westerman holds a commanding position in Arkansas’s 4th congressional district, a rural area with an R+20 Cook Partisan Voter Index that delivered him 72.9% of the vote in 2024. Westerman advanced unopposed through the Republican primary, while Democrat James Russell secured his party’s nomination after a contested primary. Multiple nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as Solid or Safe Republican. Traders’ 93.5% consensus for a Republican victory aligns with the district’s consistent partisan lean, Westerman’s incumbency advantages, and limited campaign activity to date. A significant shift would require an unforeseen national Democratic surge, a major candidate-specific development such as a health event or scandal, or unusually high turnout dynamics that overcome the structural Republican edge.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
交易量
$23,849結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Bruce Westerman holds a commanding position in Arkansas’s 4th congressional district, a rural area with an R+20 Cook Partisan Voter Index that delivered him 72.9% of the vote in 2024. Westerman advanced unopposed through the Republican primary, while Democrat James Russell secured his party’s nomination after a contested primary. Multiple nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as Solid or Safe Republican. Traders’ 93.5% consensus for a Republican victory aligns with the district’s consistent partisan lean, Westerman’s incumbency advantages, and limited campaign activity to date. A significant shift would require an unforeseen national Democratic surge, a major candidate-specific development such as a health event or scandal, or unusually high turnout dynamics that overcome the structural Republican edge.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$23,849結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETIncumbent Republican Bruce Westerman holds a commanding position in Arkansas’s 4th congressional district, a rural area with an R+20 Cook Partisan Voter Index that delivered him 72.9% of the vote in 2024. Westerman advanced unopposed through the Republican primary, while Democrat James Russell secured his party’s nomination after a contested primary. Multiple nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as Solid or Safe Republican. Traders’ 93.5% consensus for a Republican victory aligns with the district’s consistent partisan lean, Westerman’s incumbency advantages, and limited campaign activity to date. A significant shift would require an unforeseen national Democratic surge, a major candidate-specific development such as a health event or scandal, or unusually high turnout dynamics that overcome the structural Republican edge.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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