Incumbent Republican Michael Baumgartner holds a strong position in Washington’s 5th Congressional District due to the area’s structural Republican lean, his 2024 victory margin exceeding 20 points, and primary results where he captured nearly half the vote. The August 2026 top-two primary advanced Baumgartner and Democrat Carmela Conroy for their November 3 rematch in a district rated Solid Republican by analysts, encompassing Spokane and rural eastern counties. Conroy’s early fundraising and name recognition provide her main path forward, though independent spending and a crowded primary field did not alter the general election matchup. Trader consensus reflects these factors alongside limited post-primary polling and the district’s historical voting patterns. A late September candidate forum offers one near-term opportunity for shifts in visibility before the general election.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$55,184 交易量
$55,184 交易量
2026-11-02
邁克爾·鮑姆加特納（共和黨）
81%
卡梅拉·康羅伊（民主黨）
18%
$55,184 交易量
$55,184 交易量
2026-11-02
邁克爾·鮑姆加特納（共和黨）
$21,983 交易量
81%
卡梅拉·康羅伊（民主黨）
$33,201 交易量
18%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Michael Baumgartner holds a strong position in Washington’s 5th Congressional District due to the area’s structural Republican lean, his 2024 victory margin exceeding 20 points, and primary results where he captured nearly half the vote. The August 2026 top-two primary advanced Baumgartner and Democrat Carmela Conroy for their November 3 rematch in a district rated Solid Republican by analysts, encompassing Spokane and rural eastern counties. Conroy’s early fundraising and name recognition provide her main path forward, though independent spending and a crowded primary field did not alter the general election matchup. Trader consensus reflects these factors alongside limited post-primary polling and the district’s historical voting patterns. A late September candidate forum offers one near-term opportunity for shifts in visibility before the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
交易量
$55,184結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Michael Baumgartner holds a strong position in Washington’s 5th Congressional District due to the area’s structural Republican lean, his 2024 victory margin exceeding 20 points, and primary results where he captured nearly half the vote. The August 2026 top-two primary advanced Baumgartner and Democrat Carmela Conroy for their November 3 rematch in a district rated Solid Republican by analysts, encompassing Spokane and rural eastern counties. Conroy’s early fundraising and name recognition provide her main path forward, though independent spending and a crowded primary field did not alter the general election matchup. Trader consensus reflects these factors alongside limited post-primary polling and the district’s historical voting patterns. A late September candidate forum offers one near-term opportunity for shifts in visibility before the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$55,184結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETIncumbent Republican Michael Baumgartner holds a strong position in Washington’s 5th Congressional District due to the area’s structural Republican lean, his 2024 victory margin exceeding 20 points, and primary results where he captured nearly half the vote. The August 2026 top-two primary advanced Baumgartner and Democrat Carmela Conroy for their November 3 rematch in a district rated Solid Republican by analysts, encompassing Spokane and rural eastern counties. Conroy’s early fundraising and name recognition provide her main path forward, though independent spending and a crowded primary field did not alter the general election matchup. Trader consensus reflects these factors alongside limited post-primary polling and the district’s historical voting patterns. A late September candidate forum offers one near-term opportunity for shifts in visibility before the general election.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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