Sagal Abdi-Wali, Camden Council leader and frontrunner for Labour’s nomination, leads the market at 55.5% as traders price in her likely selection on September 9 and the party’s long hold on the seat since 1983. Keir Starmer’s resignation as MP on September 1 triggered the by-election, with no polling date confirmed but expectations pointing to autumn. Zack Polanski’s Green candidacy at 27% reflects the party’s strong local results in 2024 and May 2026 Camden wards, positioning it as the clearest challenger in an inner-London constituency where Greens took over 10% last time. Other declared or potential candidates remain at single-digit or lower implied probabilities. The narrow gap between leading options highlights uncertainty over final nominations, turnout, and whether national shifts under Prime Minister Andy Burnham will reinforce Labour’s advantage or allow Greens to close further.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Sagal Abdi-Wali 55%
扎克·波蘭斯基 27%
大衛·斯坦塞爾 5.9%
Pat Callaghan 4.7%
$10,345 交易量
$10,345 交易量
Sagal Abdi-Wali
55%
扎克·波蘭斯基
27%
大衛·斯坦塞爾
6%
Pat Callaghan
5%
哈姆扎·喬杜里
4%
理查德·奧爾謝夫斯基
4%
Gio Spinella
3%
Luisa Porritt
3%
基思·莫菲特
2%
亞當·哈里森
2%
崔西亞·萊曼
2%
Sarah Hayward
2%
安德魯·費因斯坦
2%
詹姆斯·懷特
2%
梅赫林·馬利克
2%
Lorna Jane Russell
1%
佐治亞·古爾德
1%
Jim Monahan
1%
Siân Berry
1%
查理·克林頓
1%
奧利佛·庫珀
1%
莎拉·波欽
1%
大衛·羅伯茨
1%
Sagal Abdi-Wali 55%
扎克·波蘭斯基 27%
大衛·斯坦塞爾 5.9%
Pat Callaghan 4.7%
$10,345 交易量
$10,345 交易量
Sagal Abdi-Wali
55%
扎克·波蘭斯基
27%
大衛·斯坦塞爾
6%
Pat Callaghan
5%
哈姆扎·喬杜里
4%
理查德·奧爾謝夫斯基
4%
Gio Spinella
3%
Luisa Porritt
3%
基思·莫菲特
2%
亞當·哈里森
2%
崔西亞·萊曼
2%
Sarah Hayward
2%
安德魯·費因斯坦
2%
詹姆斯·懷特
2%
梅赫林·馬利克
2%
Lorna Jane Russell
1%
佐治亞·古爾德
1%
Jim Monahan
1%
Siân Berry
1%
查理·克林頓
1%
奧利佛·庫珀
1%
莎拉·波欽
1%
大衛·羅伯茨
1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Holborn and St Pancras parliamentary by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
市場開放時間： Sep 1, 2026, 12:13 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Holborn and St Pancras parliamentary by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Sagal Abdi-Wali, Camden Council leader and frontrunner for Labour’s nomination, leads the market at 55.5% as traders price in her likely selection on September 9 and the party’s long hold on the seat since 1983. Keir Starmer’s resignation as MP on September 1 triggered the by-election, with no polling date confirmed but expectations pointing to autumn. Zack Polanski’s Green candidacy at 27% reflects the party’s strong local results in 2024 and May 2026 Camden wards, positioning it as the clearest challenger in an inner-London constituency where Greens took over 10% last time. Other declared or potential candidates remain at single-digit or lower implied probabilities. The narrow gap between leading options highlights uncertainty over final nominations, turnout, and whether national shifts under Prime Minister Andy Burnham will reinforce Labour’s advantage or allow Greens to close further.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions