Recent declines in UK CPI inflation to 2.6% in the 12 months to June 2026, driven by lower transport and food costs, contrast with Bank of England projections for a rebound later in the year amid volatile energy prices from Middle East conflict. The MPC held Bank Rate steady at 3.75% while noting risks of temporary upside to headline figures, with forecasts pointing toward 3.3% or higher by Q4. Polymarket traders price the 3.5–3.9% annual outcome band highest at 26.4% implied probability, ahead of the 2.5–2.9% range, reflecting uncertainty over whether easing labor market conditions and prior rate cuts will offset energy-driven pressures or allow a quicker return toward the 2% target. The next CPI release and September MPC decision remain key near-term catalysts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於3.5–3.9% 26.4%
2.5–2.9% 21.9%
4.0-4.4% 12%
4.5%以上 8%
$34,523 交易量
$34,523 交易量
2027-01-20
低於1.0%
<1%
1.0–1.4%
1%
1.5–1.9%
1%
2.0–2.4%
2%
2.5–2.9%
22%
3.0–3.4%
-
3.5–3.9%
26%
4.0-4.4%
12%
4.5%以上
8%
3.5–3.9% 26.4%
2.5–2.9% 21.9%
4.0-4.4% 12%
4.5%以上 8%
$34,523 交易量
$34,523 交易量
2027-01-20
低於1.0%
$851 交易量
<1%
1.0–1.4%
$381 交易量
1%
1.5–1.9%
$541 交易量
1%
2.0–2.4%
$389 交易量
2%
2.5–2.9%
$11,965 交易量
22%
3.0–3.4%
$0 交易量
-
3.5–3.9%
$9,862 交易量
26%
4.0-4.4%
$3,368 交易量
12%
4.5%以上
$7,166 交易量
8%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendarRecent declines in UK CPI inflation to 2.6% in the 12 months to June 2026, driven by lower transport and food costs, contrast with Bank of England projections for a rebound later in the year amid volatile energy prices from Middle East conflict. The MPC held Bank Rate steady at 3.75% while noting risks of temporary upside to headline figures, with forecasts pointing toward 3.3% or higher by Q4. Polymarket traders price the 3.5–3.9% annual outcome band highest at 26.4% implied probability, ahead of the 2.5–2.9% range, reflecting uncertainty over whether easing labor market conditions and prior rate cuts will offset energy-driven pressures or allow a quicker return toward the 2% target. The next CPI release and September MPC decision remain key near-term catalysts.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
市場開放時間： Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
交易量
$34,523結束日期
2027-01-20市場開放時間
Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendarRecent declines in UK CPI inflation to 2.6% in the 12 months to June 2026, driven by lower transport and food costs, contrast with Bank of England projections for a rebound later in the year amid volatile energy prices from Middle East conflict. The MPC held Bank Rate steady at 3.75% while noting risks of temporary upside to headline figures, with forecasts pointing toward 3.3% or higher by Q4. Polymarket traders price the 3.5–3.9% annual outcome band highest at 26.4% implied probability, ahead of the 2.5–2.9% range, reflecting uncertainty over whether easing labor market conditions and prior rate cuts will offset energy-driven pressures or allow a quicker return toward the 2% target. The next CPI release and September MPC decision remain key near-term catalysts.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
交易量
$34,523結束日期
2027-01-20市場開放時間
Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent declines in UK CPI inflation to 2.6% in the 12 months to June 2026, driven by lower transport and food costs, contrast with Bank of England projections for a rebound later in the year amid volatile energy prices from Middle East conflict. The MPC held Bank Rate steady at 3.75% while noting risks of temporary upside to headline figures, with forecasts pointing toward 3.3% or higher by Q4. Polymarket traders price the 3.5–3.9% annual outcome band highest at 26.4% implied probability, ahead of the 2.5–2.9% range, reflecting uncertainty over whether easing labor market conditions and prior rate cuts will offset energy-driven pressures or allow a quicker return toward the 2% target. The next CPI release and September MPC decision remain key near-term catalysts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions