Elevated global energy prices stemming from Middle East geopolitical tensions represent the dominant driver behind trader positioning in the U.K. Annual Inflation 2026 market, where the 3.5–3.9% band holds the highest implied probability at 27.4%. August CPI printed at 3.1%, exceeding the Bank of England’s July central projection, with direct energy contributions pushing the headline rate higher while core measures remained steady near 2.6%. Official forecasts, including the BoE’s 3.2% Q4 2026 peak and IMF estimates around 3.2% for the annual average, incorporate fading base effects and labor-market slack that limit second-round wage pressures, yet recent Brent crude moves above $110 and elevated natural gas prices have shifted some sentiment toward the adverse scenario outcomes above 4%. Market-implied odds across the 2.5–4.4% range reflect this balance between near-term energy pass-through and expectations for monetary policy restraint at the 3.75% Bank Rate, with upcoming ONS releases and MPC decisions serving as key near-term catalysts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於3.5–3.9% 27.4%
2.5–2.9% 10.4%
4.5%以上 8%
4.0-4.4% 6.8%
$99,938 交易量
$99,938 交易量
2027-01-19
低於1.0%
<1%
1.0–1.4%
3%
1.5–1.9%
4%
2.0–2.4%
5%
2.5–2.9%
10%
3.0–3.4%
-
3.5–3.9%
27%
4.0-4.4%
7%
4.5%以上
8%
3.5–3.9% 27.4%
2.5–2.9% 10.4%
4.5%以上 8%
4.0-4.4% 6.8%
$99,938 交易量
$99,938 交易量
2027-01-19
低於1.0%
$945 交易量
<1%
1.0–1.4%
$1,437 交易量
3%
1.5–1.9%
$2,642 交易量
4%
2.0–2.4%
$17,057 交易量
5%
2.5–2.9%
$22,651 交易量
10%
3.0–3.4%
$0 交易量
-
3.5–3.9%
$37,547 交易量
27%
4.0-4.4%
$8,657 交易量
7%
4.5%以上
$9,003 交易量
8%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendarElevated global energy prices stemming from Middle East geopolitical tensions represent the dominant driver behind trader positioning in the U.K. Annual Inflation 2026 market, where the 3.5–3.9% band holds the highest implied probability at 27.4%. August CPI printed at 3.1%, exceeding the Bank of England’s July central projection, with direct energy contributions pushing the headline rate higher while core measures remained steady near 2.6%. Official forecasts, including the BoE’s 3.2% Q4 2026 peak and IMF estimates around 3.2% for the annual average, incorporate fading base effects and labor-market slack that limit second-round wage pressures, yet recent Brent crude moves above $110 and elevated natural gas prices have shifted some sentiment toward the adverse scenario outcomes above 4%. Market-implied odds across the 2.5–4.4% range reflect this balance between near-term energy pass-through and expectations for monetary policy restraint at the 3.75% Bank Rate, with upcoming ONS releases and MPC decisions serving as key near-term catalysts.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
市場開放時間： Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
交易量
$99,938結束日期
2027-01-20市場開放時間
Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ETThis is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendarElevated global energy prices stemming from Middle East geopolitical tensions represent the dominant driver behind trader positioning in the U.K. Annual Inflation 2026 market, where the 3.5–3.9% band holds the highest implied probability at 27.4%. August CPI printed at 3.1%, exceeding the Bank of England’s July central projection, with direct energy contributions pushing the headline rate higher while core measures remained steady near 2.6%. Official forecasts, including the BoE’s 3.2% Q4 2026 peak and IMF estimates around 3.2% for the annual average, incorporate fading base effects and labor-market slack that limit second-round wage pressures, yet recent Brent crude moves above $110 and elevated natural gas prices have shifted some sentiment toward the adverse scenario outcomes above 4%. Market-implied odds across the 2.5–4.4% range reflect this balance between near-term energy pass-through and expectations for monetary policy restraint at the 3.75% Bank Rate, with upcoming ONS releases and MPC decisions serving as key near-term catalysts.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
交易量
$99,938結束日期
2027-01-20市場開放時間
Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ETElevated global energy prices stemming from Middle East geopolitical tensions represent the dominant driver behind trader positioning in the U.K. Annual Inflation 2026 market, where the 3.5–3.9% band holds the highest implied probability at 27.4%. August CPI printed at 3.1%, exceeding the Bank of England’s July central projection, with direct energy contributions pushing the headline rate higher while core measures remained steady near 2.6%. Official forecasts, including the BoE’s 3.2% Q4 2026 peak and IMF estimates around 3.2% for the annual average, incorporate fading base effects and labor-market slack that limit second-round wage pressures, yet recent Brent crude moves above $110 and elevated natural gas prices have shifted some sentiment toward the adverse scenario outcomes above 4%. Market-implied odds across the 2.5–4.4% range reflect this balance between near-term energy pass-through and expectations for monetary policy restraint at the 3.75% Bank Rate, with upcoming ONS releases and MPC decisions serving as key near-term catalysts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions