Recent UK CPI eased to 2.6% in June 2026, below the Bank of England’s 2% target, yet the Monetary Policy Committee projects a pickup to 3.2% by Q4 amid higher energy prices and indirect effects from Middle East tensions. With Bank Rate held at 3.75%, the central bank’s July Monetary Policy Report highlights risks of temporary inflation above 3% through year-end before moderating toward target in 2027. Trader consensus on 2026 annual inflation centers on the 2.5–3.9% bands, reflecting uncertainty over the duration and magnitude of energy-driven pressures versus softening core goods and services trends. Key swing factors include upcoming CPI releases, global commodity movements, and any BoE rate adjustments ahead of the September meeting.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於2.5–2.9% 23.4%
3.5–3.9% 21.1%
4.0-4.4% 12%
4.5%以上 8%
$48,159 交易量
$48,159 交易量
低於1.0%
<1%
1.0–1.4%
2%
1.5–1.9%
2%
2.0–2.4%
3%
2.5–2.9%
23%
3.0–3.4%
-
3.5–3.9%
21%
4.0-4.4%
12%
4.5%以上
8%
2.5–2.9% 23.4%
3.5–3.9% 21.1%
4.0-4.4% 12%
4.5%以上 8%
$48,159 交易量
$48,159 交易量
低於1.0%
<1%
1.0–1.4%
2%
1.5–1.9%
2%
2.0–2.4%
3%
2.5–2.9%
23%
3.0–3.4%
-
3.5–3.9%
21%
4.0-4.4%
12%
4.5%以上
8%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
市場開放時間: Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent UK CPI eased to 2.6% in June 2026, below the Bank of England’s 2% target, yet the Monetary Policy Committee projects a pickup to 3.2% by Q4 amid higher energy prices and indirect effects from Middle East tensions. With Bank Rate held at 3.75%, the central bank’s July Monetary Policy Report highlights risks of temporary inflation above 3% through year-end before moderating toward target in 2027. Trader consensus on 2026 annual inflation centers on the 2.5–3.9% bands, reflecting uncertainty over the duration and magnitude of energy-driven pressures versus softening core goods and services trends. Key swing factors include upcoming CPI releases, global commodity movements, and any BoE rate adjustments ahead of the September meeting.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於



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