Recent UK CPI data show inflation easing to 2.6% year-over-year in June 2026, below consensus, amid moderating transport and food costs. However, the Bank of England’s July outlook highlights upside risks from elevated and volatile energy prices tied to Middle East tensions, projecting a pickup to around 3.2% by Q4 2026 with indirect effects feeding into food and services. Market-implied odds cluster on 3.5–3.9% and 2.5–2.9% ranges, reflecting trader assessments of whether energy-driven second-round pressures will dominate or be contained by labor market slack and subdued underlying inflation. Key swing factors include the path of wholesale energy costs, upcoming CPI releases, and any shifts in BoE policy guidance ahead of year-end resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於3.5–3.9% 26.3%
2.5–2.9% 21.9%
4.0-4.4% 12%
4.5%以上 8%
$34,523 交易量
$34,523 交易量
低於1.0%
<1%
1.0–1.4%
1%
1.5–1.9%
1%
2.0–2.4%
2%
2.5–2.9%
22%
3.0–3.4%
-
3.5–3.9%
26%
4.0-4.4%
12%
4.5%以上
8%
3.5–3.9% 26.3%
2.5–2.9% 21.9%
4.0-4.4% 12%
4.5%以上 8%
$34,523 交易量
$34,523 交易量
低於1.0%
<1%
1.0–1.4%
1%
1.5–1.9%
1%
2.0–2.4%
2%
2.5–2.9%
22%
3.0–3.4%
-
3.5–3.9%
26%
4.0-4.4%
12%
4.5%以上
8%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
市場開放時間: Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent UK CPI data show inflation easing to 2.6% year-over-year in June 2026, below consensus, amid moderating transport and food costs. However, the Bank of England’s July outlook highlights upside risks from elevated and volatile energy prices tied to Middle East tensions, projecting a pickup to around 3.2% by Q4 2026 with indirect effects feeding into food and services. Market-implied odds cluster on 3.5–3.9% and 2.5–2.9% ranges, reflecting trader assessments of whether energy-driven second-round pressures will dominate or be contained by labor market slack and subdued underlying inflation. Key swing factors include the path of wholesale energy costs, upcoming CPI releases, and any shifts in BoE policy guidance ahead of year-end resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於



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