Recent August core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month—exceeding the 0.2% consensus—while the annual rate eased to 2.4%, the lowest since March 2021. Energy prices surged on Middle East tensions, contributing to the headline 0.4% gain and lifting core PCE tracking estimates. This stickier monthly momentum, alongside resilient services and shelter components, has narrowed implied probabilities across 0.2–0.6% outcomes for September, with markets now pricing a higher likelihood of Federal Reserve rate hikes at the imminent FOMC meeting. Traders are monitoring upcoming labor data and producer prices for signals on whether the disinflation trend has stalled.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於0.4% 49%
0.5% 48%
0.2% 36%
0.6%及以上 35%
≤0.0%
28%
0.1%
27%
0.2%
36%
0.3%
22%
0.4%
49%
0.5%
48%
0.6%及以上
35%
0.4% 49%
0.5% 48%
0.2% 36%
0.6%及以上 35%
≤0.0%
28%
0.1%
27%
0.2%
36%
0.3%
22%
0.4%
49%
0.5%
48%
0.6%及以上
35%
This market will resolve to the one-month percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report (seasonally adjusted change from the preceding month).
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
市場開放時間: Sep 11, 2026, 11:28 AM ET
This market will resolve to the one-month percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report (seasonally adjusted change from the preceding month).
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Recent August core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month—exceeding the 0.2% consensus—while the annual rate eased to 2.4%, the lowest since March 2021. Energy prices surged on Middle East tensions, contributing to the headline 0.4% gain and lifting core PCE tracking estimates. This stickier monthly momentum, alongside resilient services and shelter components, has narrowed implied probabilities across 0.2–0.6% outcomes for September, with markets now pricing a higher likelihood of Federal Reserve rate hikes at the imminent FOMC meeting. Traders are monitoring upcoming labor data and producer prices for signals on whether the disinflation trend has stalled.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於

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