**Eurozone HICP inflation for 2026 is projected at 3.0% in the ECB’s September 2026 staff baseline, unchanged from June, with the annual average lifted by a surge in energy prices stemming from the Middle East conflict.** This path features a peak of 3.6% in Q4 2026 before easing toward 2.5% in 2027, as higher crude and refined product costs feed through to transport fuels, wholesale gas, and electricity. Recent monthly prints, including July’s 2.9% headline and firmer core readings, alongside the ECB’s 25-basis-point rate hike on September 10, underscore persistent pressures above the 2% target. Market-implied odds placing over 81% probability on a 3.1%+ outcome reflect traders’ weighting of upside risks from energy volatility and indirect pass-through effects, consistent with the latest official projections and survey data.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於3.1%以上 81.3%
1.0–1.2% 3.6%
2.8-3.0% 2.6%
2.5–2.7% 2.5%
$114,265 交易量
$114,265 交易量
低於1.0%
<1%
1.0–1.2%
4%
1.3–1.5%
1%
1.6–1.8%
1%
1.9–2.1%
1%
2.2–2.4%
1%
2.5–2.7%
3%
2.8-3.0%
3%
3.1%以上
81%
3.1%以上 81.3%
1.0–1.2% 3.6%
2.8-3.0% 2.6%
2.5–2.7% 2.5%
$114,265 交易量
$114,265 交易量
低於1.0%
<1%
1.0–1.2%
4%
1.3–1.5%
1%
1.6–1.8%
1%
1.9–2.1%
1%
2.2–2.4%
1%
2.5–2.7%
3%
2.8-3.0%
3%
3.1%以上
81%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly Eurostat report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Eurostat Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 19, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report on the Eurostat website (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/) by selecting the "Database" option from the "Data" dropdown, opening the "Data navigation tree" folder, then the "Economy and finance" folder, then the "Prices (prc)" folder, then the "Harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) (prc_hicp)" folder, and opening the file named "HICP - monthly data (annual rate of change) (prc_hicp_manr)". The relevant figure can be found in the column for the relevant month in the row marked "Euro area - 20 countries (from 2023)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Eurostat HICP news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/release-calendar or https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/statscal/ges/html/sthicp.en.html
市場開放時間: Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly Eurostat report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Eurostat Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 19, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report on the Eurostat website (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/) by selecting the "Database" option from the "Data" dropdown, opening the "Data navigation tree" folder, then the "Economy and finance" folder, then the "Prices (prc)" folder, then the "Harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) (prc_hicp)" folder, and opening the file named "HICP - monthly data (annual rate of change) (prc_hicp_manr)". The relevant figure can be found in the column for the relevant month in the row marked "Euro area - 20 countries (from 2023)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Eurostat HICP news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/release-calendar or https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/statscal/ges/html/sthicp.en.html
**Eurozone HICP inflation for 2026 is projected at 3.0% in the ECB’s September 2026 staff baseline, unchanged from June, with the annual average lifted by a surge in energy prices stemming from the Middle East conflict.** This path features a peak of 3.6% in Q4 2026 before easing toward 2.5% in 2027, as higher crude and refined product costs feed through to transport fuels, wholesale gas, and electricity. Recent monthly prints, including July’s 2.9% headline and firmer core readings, alongside the ECB’s 25-basis-point rate hike on September 10, underscore persistent pressures above the 2% target. Market-implied odds placing over 81% probability on a 3.1%+ outcome reflect traders’ weighting of upside risks from energy volatility and indirect pass-through effects, consistent with the latest official projections and survey data.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於



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