**Elevated inflation and a resilient labor market are anchoring trader expectations for a 25-basis-point rate increase at the December 2026 FOMC meeting, which commands a 60.5% implied probability on Polymarket.** Recent August CPI (+3.4% year-over-year) and PCE prints near 3.7%, alongside a solid 162,000 payroll gain and 4.1% unemployment rate, have reinforced concerns that price pressures remain above the 2% target. Hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh, including Jackson Hole remarks stressing the need for clearer disinflation progress, have shifted market-implied odds toward further tightening. The June SEP already projected a higher year-end federal funds rate path near 3.8%, and analysts now widely anticipate possible hikes at both the September 15–16 and December meetings. While a no-change outcome retains 36.5% odds, incoming September data and the next dot plot will be key swing factors for the December decision.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於25 bps increase 61%
無變動 36%
25 bps decrease 3.8%
50+ bps increase 1.8%
$856,851 交易量
$856,851 交易量
2026-12-09
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
4%
無變動
36%
25 bps increase
61%
50+ bps increase
2%
25 bps increase 61%
無變動 36%
25 bps decrease 3.8%
50+ bps increase 1.8%
$856,851 交易量
$856,851 交易量
2026-12-09
50+ bps decrease
$136,996 交易量
1%
25 bps decrease
$194,436 交易量
4%
無變動
$177,985 交易量
36%
25 bps increase
$216,900 交易量
61%
50+ bps increase
$130,533 交易量
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Elevated inflation and a resilient labor market are anchoring trader expectations for a 25-basis-point rate increase at the December 2026 FOMC meeting, which commands a 60.5% implied probability on Polymarket.** Recent August CPI (+3.4% year-over-year) and PCE prints near 3.7%, alongside a solid 162,000 payroll gain and 4.1% unemployment rate, have reinforced concerns that price pressures remain above the 2% target. Hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh, including Jackson Hole remarks stressing the need for clearer disinflation progress, have shifted market-implied odds toward further tightening. The June SEP already projected a higher year-end federal funds rate path near 3.8%, and analysts now widely anticipate possible hikes at both the September 15–16 and December meetings. While a no-change outcome retains 36.5% odds, incoming September data and the next dot plot will be key swing factors for the December decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
市場開放時間： Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
交易量
$856,851結束日期
2026-12-09市場開放時間
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETThe FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Elevated inflation and a resilient labor market are anchoring trader expectations for a 25-basis-point rate increase at the December 2026 FOMC meeting, which commands a 60.5% implied probability on Polymarket.** Recent August CPI (+3.4% year-over-year) and PCE prints near 3.7%, alongside a solid 162,000 payroll gain and 4.1% unemployment rate, have reinforced concerns that price pressures remain above the 2% target. Hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh, including Jackson Hole remarks stressing the need for clearer disinflation progress, have shifted market-implied odds toward further tightening. The June SEP already projected a higher year-end federal funds rate path near 3.8%, and analysts now widely anticipate possible hikes at both the September 15–16 and December meetings. While a no-change outcome retains 36.5% odds, incoming September data and the next dot plot will be key swing factors for the December decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
交易量
$856,851結束日期
2026-12-09市場開放時間
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET**Elevated inflation and a resilient labor market are anchoring trader expectations for a 25-basis-point rate increase at the December 2026 FOMC meeting, which commands a 60.5% implied probability on Polymarket.** Recent August CPI (+3.4% year-over-year) and PCE prints near 3.7%, alongside a solid 162,000 payroll gain and 4.1% unemployment rate, have reinforced concerns that price pressures remain above the 2% target. Hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh, including Jackson Hole remarks stressing the need for clearer disinflation progress, have shifted market-implied odds toward further tightening. The June SEP already projected a higher year-end federal funds rate path near 3.8%, and analysts now widely anticipate possible hikes at both the September 15–16 and December meetings. While a no-change outcome retains 36.5% odds, incoming September data and the next dot plot will be key swing factors for the December decision.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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