The September 16, 2026, FOMC decision to hike the federal funds rate 25 basis points to the 3.75%-4.00% range, alongside updated projections pointing to further tightening, underpins the 68.5% market-implied probability of another 25 basis point increase at the December meeting. Persistent inflation near 3.4% CPI and 3.6% PCE, fueled by energy shocks from geopolitical tensions, has kept the policy focus on price stability despite a stable labor market with 4.1% unemployment. The 30.5% odds of no change reflect some uncertainty over the pace of normalization, while probabilities for larger moves or cuts stay below 2%. October data releases and the next FOMC statement will likely shape these aggregated trader views ahead of year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於25 bps increase 69%
無變動 31%
50+ bps increase 1.8%
25 bps decrease 1.7%
$976,789 交易量
$976,789 交易量
2026-12-09
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
2%
無變動
31%
25 bps increase
69%
50+ bps increase
2%
25 bps increase 69%
無變動 31%
50+ bps increase 1.8%
25 bps decrease 1.7%
$976,789 交易量
$976,789 交易量
2026-12-09
50+ bps decrease
$153,859 交易量
1%
25 bps decrease
$211,060 交易量
2%
無變動
$195,650 交易量
31%
25 bps increase
$268,868 交易量
69%
50+ bps increase
$147,354 交易量
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The September 16, 2026, FOMC decision to hike the federal funds rate 25 basis points to the 3.75%-4.00% range, alongside updated projections pointing to further tightening, underpins the 68.5% market-implied probability of another 25 basis point increase at the December meeting. Persistent inflation near 3.4% CPI and 3.6% PCE, fueled by energy shocks from geopolitical tensions, has kept the policy focus on price stability despite a stable labor market with 4.1% unemployment. The 30.5% odds of no change reflect some uncertainty over the pace of normalization, while probabilities for larger moves or cuts stay below 2%. October data releases and the next FOMC statement will likely shape these aggregated trader views ahead of year-end.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
市場開放時間： Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
交易量
$976,789結束日期
2026-12-09市場開放時間
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETThe FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The September 16, 2026, FOMC decision to hike the federal funds rate 25 basis points to the 3.75%-4.00% range, alongside updated projections pointing to further tightening, underpins the 68.5% market-implied probability of another 25 basis point increase at the December meeting. Persistent inflation near 3.4% CPI and 3.6% PCE, fueled by energy shocks from geopolitical tensions, has kept the policy focus on price stability despite a stable labor market with 4.1% unemployment. The 30.5% odds of no change reflect some uncertainty over the pace of normalization, while probabilities for larger moves or cuts stay below 2%. October data releases and the next FOMC statement will likely shape these aggregated trader views ahead of year-end.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
交易量
$976,789結束日期
2026-12-09市場開放時間
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETThe September 16, 2026, FOMC decision to hike the federal funds rate 25 basis points to the 3.75%-4.00% range, alongside updated projections pointing to further tightening, underpins the 68.5% market-implied probability of another 25 basis point increase at the December meeting. Persistent inflation near 3.4% CPI and 3.6% PCE, fueled by energy shocks from geopolitical tensions, has kept the policy focus on price stability despite a stable labor market with 4.1% unemployment. The 30.5% odds of no change reflect some uncertainty over the pace of normalization, while probabilities for larger moves or cuts stay below 2%. October data releases and the next FOMC statement will likely shape these aggregated trader views ahead of year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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