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icon for 2026年聯儲局降息多少次？
經濟艙·獎勵200、4.5、50折扣

2026年聯儲局降息多少次？

icon for 2026年聯儲局降息多少次？
經濟艙·獎勵200、4.5、50折扣

2026年聯儲局降息多少次？

0（0個基點） 94.5%

1（25個基點） 3.5%

2（50個基點） <1%

3次（75個基點） <1%

Polymarket

$52,357,282 交易量

0（0個基點） 94.5%

1（25個基點） 3.5%

2（50個基點） <1%

3次（75個基點） <1%

Polymarket

$52,357,282 交易量

0（0個基點）

$8,298,361 交易量

95%

1（25個基點）

$3,010,634 交易量

3%

2（50個基點）

$3,067,789 交易量

1%

3次（75個基點）

$2,830,588 交易量

<1%

4（100 個基點）

$2,709,692 交易量

<1%

5次（125個基點）

$2,968,561 交易量

<1%

6次（150個基點）

$4,218,764 交易量

<1%

7次（175個基點）

$3,519,587 交易量

<1%

8次（200個基點）

$3,288,353 交易量

<1%

9次（225個基點）

$4,284,247 交易量

<1%

10（250個基點）

$4,945,010 交易量

<1%

11 次（275 個基點）

$5,263,067 交易量

<1%

12次以上（超過300個基點）

$3,952,644 交易量

<1%

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, reinforced by stronger-than-expected August CPI and solid payrolls, underpins the 94.5% market-implied probability of zero federal funds rate cuts in 2026. Elevated energy prices tied to Middle East supply concerns, resilient GDP growth, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.2% have shifted the policy reaction function toward holding or even hiking rates, as reflected in recent FOMC projections and communications under Chair Warsh. Traders are now pricing in tightening odds exceeding 85% for the September 15–16 meeting. A clear pivot toward cuts would require sustained disinflation in core measures or a sharp labor-market deterioration in upcoming data releases.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
交易量
$52,357,282
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET

結算方

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, reinforced by stronger-than-expected August CPI and solid payrolls, underpins the 94.5% market-implied probability of zero federal funds rate cuts in 2026. Elevated energy prices tied to Middle East supply concerns, resilient GDP growth, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.2% have shifted the policy reaction function toward holding or even hiking rates, as reflected in recent FOMC projections and communications under Chair Warsh. Traders are now pricing in tightening odds exceeding 85% for the September 15–16 meeting. A clear pivot toward cuts would require sustained disinflation in core measures or a sharp labor-market deterioration in upcoming data releases.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
交易量
$52,357,282
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET

結算方

0x2F5e3684c...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"2026年聯儲局降息多少次？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "0（0個基點）" at 95%, followed by "1（25個基點）" at 3%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 95¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 95% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2026年聯儲局降息多少次？" has generated $52.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 29, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2026年聯儲局降息多少次？," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2026年聯儲局降息多少次？" is "0（0個基點）" at 95%, meaning the market assigns a 95% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "1（25個基點）" at 3%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2026年聯儲局降息多少次？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.