Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, reinforced by stronger-than-expected August CPI and solid payrolls, underpins the 94.5% market-implied probability of zero federal funds rate cuts in 2026. Elevated energy prices tied to Middle East supply concerns, resilient GDP growth, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.2% have shifted the policy reaction function toward holding or even hiking rates, as reflected in recent FOMC projections and communications under Chair Warsh. Traders are now pricing in tightening odds exceeding 85% for the September 15–16 meeting. A clear pivot toward cuts would require sustained disinflation in core measures or a sharp labor-market deterioration in upcoming data releases.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Fed maintains cautious stance on rate cuts amid persistent inflation and labor market stability
0 (0 bps) jumps to 93%7%
As of September 2026, the Fed has maintained rates with no additional cuts, reflecting ongoing concerns about inflation remaining above target and a stable labor market. Market pricing shows a high probability of zero cuts for the year.
Market pricing shows strong consensus for zero Fed rate cuts in 2026
0 (0 bps) rises to 93%4%
By early September 2026, prediction markets and futures data indicated a dominant market belief that the Fed would not cut rates in 2026, with the 0 (0 bps) outcome price rising to 93%, reflecting confidence in the Fed's steady policy stance.




警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions