The 10-year Treasury yield has surged to multi-year highs near 4.82% intraday on September 2 amid entrenched inflation concerns, elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions, and heavy Treasury supply tied to fiscal deficits exceeding $40 trillion. Real yields have driven much of the move higher, with the benchmark closing around 4.79% as of September 2, reflecting reduced demand for longer-duration debt and a firmer term premium. Markets now assign substantial implied probability to a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, following hawkish signals from Chair Warsh and resilient growth data. Key near-term catalysts include the August nonfarm payrolls report on September 4, CPI on September 11, and the policy decision itself, which could further shift trader positioning on the September peak.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於最新
2026-09-30
5.10%
50%
5.05%
50%
5.00%
50%
4.97%
50%
4.94%
50%
4.91%
50%
4.88%
50%
4.85%
50%
4.82%
50%
$0.00 交易量
5.10%
$0 交易量
50%
5.05%
$0 交易量
50%
5.00%
$0 交易量
50%
4.97%
$0 交易量
50%
4.94%
$0 交易量
50%
4.91%
$0 交易量
50%
4.88%
$0 交易量
50%
4.85%
$0 交易量
50%
4.82%
$0 交易量
50%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The 10-year Treasury yield has surged to multi-year highs near 4.82% intraday on September 2 amid entrenched inflation concerns, elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions, and heavy Treasury supply tied to fiscal deficits exceeding $40 trillion. Real yields have driven much of the move higher, with the benchmark closing around 4.79% as of September 2, reflecting reduced demand for longer-duration debt and a firmer term premium. Markets now assign substantial implied probability to a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, following hawkish signals from Chair Warsh and resilient growth data. Key near-term catalysts include the August nonfarm payrolls report on September 4, CPI on September 11, and the policy decision itself, which could further shift trader positioning on the September peak.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
市場開放時間： Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-09-30市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The 10-year Treasury yield has surged to multi-year highs near 4.82% intraday on September 2 amid entrenched inflation concerns, elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions, and heavy Treasury supply tied to fiscal deficits exceeding $40 trillion. Real yields have driven much of the move higher, with the benchmark closing around 4.79% as of September 2, reflecting reduced demand for longer-duration debt and a firmer term premium. Markets now assign substantial implied probability to a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, following hawkish signals from Chair Warsh and resilient growth data. Key near-term catalysts include the August nonfarm payrolls report on September 4, CPI on September 11, and the policy decision itself, which could further shift trader positioning on the September peak.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-09-30市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETThe 10-year Treasury yield has surged to multi-year highs near 4.82% intraday on September 2 amid entrenched inflation concerns, elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions, and heavy Treasury supply tied to fiscal deficits exceeding $40 trillion. Real yields have driven much of the move higher, with the benchmark closing around 4.79% as of September 2, reflecting reduced demand for longer-duration debt and a firmer term premium. Markets now assign substantial implied probability to a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, following hawkish signals from Chair Warsh and resilient growth data. Key near-term catalysts include the August nonfarm payrolls report on September 4, CPI on September 11, and the policy decision itself, which could further shift trader positioning on the September peak.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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