Recent upward pressure on the 30-year Treasury yield, holding near 5.27% as of September 2, stems primarily from persistent inflation concerns fueled by oil prices near $95 per barrel amid Middle East tensions and renewed fiscal deficit worries. Hawkish Federal Reserve communications, including Chairman Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks and comments from officials signaling a potential September 16 rate hike, have reinforced expectations of tighter policy, with futures pricing a roughly 60% probability of a 25-basis-point increase. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s expanded buyback program delivered only brief relief before yields rebounded. Key near-term catalysts include the September 4 employment report, PPI and CPI releases, and the FOMC decision, which could shift rate-path expectations and long-end pricing.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於最新
2026-09-30
低於5.24%
50%
低於5.21%
50%
低於5.18%
50%
低於5.15%
50%
低於5.12%
50%
低於5.09%
50%
低於5.05%
50%
低於5.00%
50%
低於4.95%
50%
$0.00 交易量
低於5.24%
$0 交易量
50%
低於5.21%
$0 交易量
50%
低於5.18%
$0 交易量
50%
低於5.15%
$0 交易量
50%
低於5.12%
$0 交易量
50%
低於5.09%
$0 交易量
50%
低於5.05%
$0 交易量
50%
低於5.00%
$0 交易量
50%
低於4.95%
$0 交易量
50%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent upward pressure on the 30-year Treasury yield, holding near 5.27% as of September 2, stems primarily from persistent inflation concerns fueled by oil prices near $95 per barrel amid Middle East tensions and renewed fiscal deficit worries. Hawkish Federal Reserve communications, including Chairman Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks and comments from officials signaling a potential September 16 rate hike, have reinforced expectations of tighter policy, with futures pricing a roughly 60% probability of a 25-basis-point increase. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s expanded buyback program delivered only brief relief before yields rebounded. Key near-term catalysts include the September 4 employment report, PPI and CPI releases, and the FOMC decision, which could shift rate-path expectations and long-end pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
市場開放時間： Sep 2, 2026, 9:06 PM ET
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-09-30市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 9:06 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent upward pressure on the 30-year Treasury yield, holding near 5.27% as of September 2, stems primarily from persistent inflation concerns fueled by oil prices near $95 per barrel amid Middle East tensions and renewed fiscal deficit worries. Hawkish Federal Reserve communications, including Chairman Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks and comments from officials signaling a potential September 16 rate hike, have reinforced expectations of tighter policy, with futures pricing a roughly 60% probability of a 25-basis-point increase. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s expanded buyback program delivered only brief relief before yields rebounded. Key near-term catalysts include the September 4 employment report, PPI and CPI releases, and the FOMC decision, which could shift rate-path expectations and long-end pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-09-30市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 9:06 PM ETRecent upward pressure on the 30-year Treasury yield, holding near 5.27% as of September 2, stems primarily from persistent inflation concerns fueled by oil prices near $95 per barrel amid Middle East tensions and renewed fiscal deficit worries. Hawkish Federal Reserve communications, including Chairman Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks and comments from officials signaling a potential September 16 rate hike, have reinforced expectations of tighter policy, with futures pricing a roughly 60% probability of a 25-basis-point increase. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s expanded buyback program delivered only brief relief before yields rebounded. Key near-term catalysts include the September 4 employment report, PPI and CPI releases, and the FOMC decision, which could shift rate-path expectations and long-end pricing.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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