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icon for 2027年之前， 5年期美國國庫券孳息率會走多高？
經濟艙·聯邦利率

2027年之前， 5年期美國國庫券孳息率會走多高？

icon for 2027年之前， 5年期美國國庫券孳息率會走多高？
經濟艙·聯邦利率

2027年之前， 5年期美國國庫券孳息率會走多高？

最新
2026-12-30
Polymarket

$0.00 交易量

Polymarket

5.25%

$0 交易量

50%

5.10%

$0 交易量

50%

5.00%

$0 交易量

50%

4.95%

$0 交易量

50%

4.90%

$0 交易量

50%

4.85%

$0 交易量

50%

4.80%

$0 交易量

50%

4.75%

$0 交易量

50%

4.70%

$0 交易量

50%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent hawkish Federal Reserve communications under Chair Kevin Warsh, combined with elevated inflation risks from rising oil prices amid Middle East tensions, have driven the 5-year Treasury yield to 4.54-4.55% as of September 2, 2026, up sharply from 3.74% a year earlier. Markets now price a roughly 70% probability of a September rate hike, lifting the policy rate path and term premium amid $40 trillion-plus federal debt, heavy Treasury supply, and AI-driven corporate issuance. Persistent fiscal deficits projected near 6.6% of GDP and sticky core inflation continue to support higher real yields, with the next FOMC meeting on September 15-16 serving as the immediate catalyst for repricing ahead of year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
交易量
$0
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET

結算方

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent hawkish Federal Reserve communications under Chair Kevin Warsh, combined with elevated inflation risks from rising oil prices amid Middle East tensions, have driven the 5-year Treasury yield to 4.54-4.55% as of September 2, 2026, up sharply from 3.74% a year earlier. Markets now price a roughly 70% probability of a September rate hike, lifting the policy rate path and term premium amid $40 trillion-plus federal debt, heavy Treasury supply, and AI-driven corporate issuance. Persistent fiscal deficits projected near 6.6% of GDP and sticky core inflation continue to support higher real yields, with the next FOMC meeting on September 15-16 serving as the immediate catalyst for repricing ahead of year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
交易量
$0
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET

結算方

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"2027年之前， 5年期美國國庫券孳息率會走多高？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "5.25%" at 50%, followed by "5.10%" at 50%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 50¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 50% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"2027年之前， 5年期美國國庫券孳息率會走多高？" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 2, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "2027年之前， 5年期美國國庫券孳息率會走多高？," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2027年之前， 5年期美國國庫券孳息率會走多高？" is "5.25%" at 50%, meaning the market assigns a 50% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "5.10%" at 50%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2027年之前， 5年期美國國庫券孳息率會走多高？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.