Elevated inflation and resilient labor market data are the primary drivers behind shifting trader sentiment on Federal Reserve rate hikes. The May 2026 CPI rose 4.2% year-over-year amid energy pressures, while strong May payrolls and a 4.3% unemployment rate have reduced easing expectations. The federal funds rate target remains at 3.50%-3.75%, with futures now pricing at least one 25-basis-point hike by year-end at roughly 66% implied probability. At the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, markets assign over 99% odds of no change as new Chair Kevin Warsh's panel maintains a data-dependent stance. Key upcoming catalysts include July CPI, nonfarm payrolls, and subsequent meetings through December that could clarify whether persistent price pressures force a policy reversal.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$173,007 交易量
2026-12-09
六月會議
1%
七月會議
7%
九月會議
19%
十月會議
29%
$173,007 交易量
六月會議
$30,807 交易量
1%
七月會議
$2,681 交易量
7%
九月會議
$4,920 交易量
19%
十月會議
$3,291 交易量
29%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated inflation and resilient labor market data are the primary drivers behind shifting trader sentiment on Federal Reserve rate hikes. The May 2026 CPI rose 4.2% year-over-year amid energy pressures, while strong May payrolls and a 4.3% unemployment rate have reduced easing expectations. The federal funds rate target remains at 3.50%-3.75%, with futures now pricing at least one 25-basis-point hike by year-end at roughly 66% implied probability. At the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, markets assign over 99% odds of no change as new Chair Kevin Warsh's panel maintains a data-dependent stance. Key upcoming catalysts include July CPI, nonfarm payrolls, and subsequent meetings through December that could clarify whether persistent price pressures force a policy reversal.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
交易量
$173,007結束日期
2026-10-29市場開放時間
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated inflation and resilient labor market data are the primary drivers behind shifting trader sentiment on Federal Reserve rate hikes. The May 2026 CPI rose 4.2% year-over-year amid energy pressures, while strong May payrolls and a 4.3% unemployment rate have reduced easing expectations. The federal funds rate target remains at 3.50%-3.75%, with futures now pricing at least one 25-basis-point hike by year-end at roughly 66% implied probability. At the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, markets assign over 99% odds of no change as new Chair Kevin Warsh's panel maintains a data-dependent stance. Key upcoming catalysts include July CPI, nonfarm payrolls, and subsequent meetings through December that could clarify whether persistent price pressures force a policy reversal.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$173,007結束日期
2026-10-29市場開放時間
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elevated inflation and resilient labor market data are the primary drivers behind shifting trader sentiment on Federal Reserve rate hikes. The May 2026 CPI rose 4.2% year-over-year amid energy pressures, while strong May payrolls and a 4.3% unemployment rate have reduced easing expectations. The federal funds rate target remains at 3.50%-3.75%, with futures now pricing at least one 25-basis-point hike by year-end at roughly 66% implied probability. At the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, markets assign over 99% odds of no change as new Chair Kevin Warsh's panel maintains a data-dependent stance. Key upcoming catalysts include July CPI, nonfarm payrolls, and subsequent meetings through December that could clarify whether persistent price pressures force a policy reversal.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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