Persistent inflation pressures from geopolitical conflicts, particularly elevated energy prices, combined with a resilient labor market and strong May jobs report, have shifted market-implied odds toward a potential 25-basis-point Fed funds rate hike by year-end. The target range stands at 3.50%-3.75% with the effective rate near 3.62%, following three consecutive holds. CME FedWatch now prices a roughly 66% probability of at least one hike by December, while economists largely anticipate steady policy through 2026. The June 16-17 FOMC meeting is expected to maintain the current stance, but upcoming July and September decisions, along with CPI and employment data, will clarify whether the Committee moves from its easing bias toward tightening if core PCE remains above the 2% target.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$173,007 交易量
2026-12-09
六月會議
1%
七月會議
7%
九月會議
20%
十月會議
29%
$173,007 交易量
六月會議
$30,950 交易量
1%
七月會議
$2,681 交易量
7%
九月會議
$4,920 交易量
20%
十月會議
$3,291 交易量
29%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation pressures from geopolitical conflicts, particularly elevated energy prices, combined with a resilient labor market and strong May jobs report, have shifted market-implied odds toward a potential 25-basis-point Fed funds rate hike by year-end. The target range stands at 3.50%-3.75% with the effective rate near 3.62%, following three consecutive holds. CME FedWatch now prices a roughly 66% probability of at least one hike by December, while economists largely anticipate steady policy through 2026. The June 16-17 FOMC meeting is expected to maintain the current stance, but upcoming July and September decisions, along with CPI and employment data, will clarify whether the Committee moves from its easing bias toward tightening if core PCE remains above the 2% target.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
交易量
$173,007結束日期
2026-10-29市場開放時間
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation pressures from geopolitical conflicts, particularly elevated energy prices, combined with a resilient labor market and strong May jobs report, have shifted market-implied odds toward a potential 25-basis-point Fed funds rate hike by year-end. The target range stands at 3.50%-3.75% with the effective rate near 3.62%, following three consecutive holds. CME FedWatch now prices a roughly 66% probability of at least one hike by December, while economists largely anticipate steady policy through 2026. The June 16-17 FOMC meeting is expected to maintain the current stance, but upcoming July and September decisions, along with CPI and employment data, will clarify whether the Committee moves from its easing bias toward tightening if core PCE remains above the 2% target.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$173,007結束日期
2026-10-29市場開放時間
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation pressures from geopolitical conflicts, particularly elevated energy prices, combined with a resilient labor market and strong May jobs report, have shifted market-implied odds toward a potential 25-basis-point Fed funds rate hike by year-end. The target range stands at 3.50%-3.75% with the effective rate near 3.62%, following three consecutive holds. CME FedWatch now prices a roughly 66% probability of at least one hike by December, while economists largely anticipate steady policy through 2026. The June 16-17 FOMC meeting is expected to maintain the current stance, but upcoming July and September decisions, along with CPI and employment data, will clarify whether the Committee moves from its easing bias toward tightening if core PCE remains above the 2% target.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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