Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, reinforced by the August 2026 CPI rising 3.4% year-over-year and 0.4% month-over-month with energy and shelter components contributing, has driven trader consensus toward an 88.5% implied probability of at least one federal funds rate hike in 2026. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh and FOMC projections showing a higher median policy rate path reflect concerns over sticky core services prices and supply shocks from Middle East tensions. Recent data revisions and labor market resilience have further tilted sentiment away from cuts, with markets now pricing elevated odds for action at the September 15-16 meeting and potential follow-through later in the year. Key near-term catalysts include the next CPI release and any shifts in Treasury yields or risk-asset volatility.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
89% 機率
$9,092,538 交易量
$9,092,538 交易量
2026-12-08
是
89% 機率
$9,092,538 交易量
$9,092,538 交易量
2026-12-08
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, reinforced by the August 2026 CPI rising 3.4% year-over-year and 0.4% month-over-month with energy and shelter components contributing, has driven trader consensus toward an 88.5% implied probability of at least one federal funds rate hike in 2026. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh and FOMC projections showing a higher median policy rate path reflect concerns over sticky core services prices and supply shocks from Middle East tensions. Recent data revisions and labor market resilience have further tilted sentiment away from cuts, with markets now pricing elevated odds for action at the September 15-16 meeting and potential follow-through later in the year. Key near-term catalysts include the next CPI release and any shifts in Treasury yields or risk-asset volatility.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
交易量
$9,092,538結束日期
2026-12-09市場開放時間
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, reinforced by the August 2026 CPI rising 3.4% year-over-year and 0.4% month-over-month with energy and shelter components contributing, has driven trader consensus toward an 88.5% implied probability of at least one federal funds rate hike in 2026. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh and FOMC projections showing a higher median policy rate path reflect concerns over sticky core services prices and supply shocks from Middle East tensions. Recent data revisions and labor market resilience have further tilted sentiment away from cuts, with markets now pricing elevated odds for action at the September 15-16 meeting and potential follow-through later in the year. Key near-term catalysts include the next CPI release and any shifts in Treasury yields or risk-asset volatility.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$9,092,538結束日期
2026-12-09市場開放時間
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETPersistent inflation above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, reinforced by the August 2026 CPI rising 3.4% year-over-year and 0.4% month-over-month with energy and shelter components contributing, has driven trader consensus toward an 88.5% implied probability of at least one federal funds rate hike in 2026. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh and FOMC projections showing a higher median policy rate path reflect concerns over sticky core services prices and supply shocks from Middle East tensions. Recent data revisions and labor market resilience have further tilted sentiment away from cuts, with markets now pricing elevated odds for action at the September 15-16 meeting and potential follow-through later in the year. Key near-term catalysts include the next CPI release and any shifts in Treasury yields or risk-asset volatility.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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警惕外部連結哦。
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