The Justice Department’s April 2026 closure of its criminal probe into Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony on Federal Reserve headquarters renovations—citing insufficient evidence and a judicial ruling quashing subpoenas—underpins the 95.7% market-implied probability that he will not be jailed before 2027. Trader consensus reflects Powell’s completed term as chair in May 2026, the absence of any subsequent charges or active investigations, and the political nature of the earlier inquiry that failed to produce prosecutable facts. While tail risks remain remote, renewed politically motivated scrutiny or unrelated personal legal matters could theoretically alter the outlook before year-end 2026.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於4% 機率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
4% 機率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The Justice Department’s April 2026 closure of its criminal probe into Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony on Federal Reserve headquarters renovations—citing insufficient evidence and a judicial ruling quashing subpoenas—underpins the 95.7% market-implied probability that he will not be jailed before 2027. Trader consensus reflects Powell’s completed term as chair in May 2026, the absence of any subsequent charges or active investigations, and the political nature of the earlier inquiry that failed to produce prosecutable facts. While tail risks remain remote, renewed politically motivated scrutiny or unrelated personal legal matters could theoretically alter the outlook before year-end 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ET
交易量
$5,693結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The Justice Department’s April 2026 closure of its criminal probe into Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony on Federal Reserve headquarters renovations—citing insufficient evidence and a judicial ruling quashing subpoenas—underpins the 95.7% market-implied probability that he will not be jailed before 2027. Trader consensus reflects Powell’s completed term as chair in May 2026, the absence of any subsequent charges or active investigations, and the political nature of the earlier inquiry that failed to produce prosecutable facts. While tail risks remain remote, renewed politically motivated scrutiny or unrelated personal legal matters could theoretically alter the outlook before year-end 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$5,693結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETThe Justice Department’s April 2026 closure of its criminal probe into Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony on Federal Reserve headquarters renovations—citing insufficient evidence and a judicial ruling quashing subpoenas—underpins the 95.7% market-implied probability that he will not be jailed before 2027. Trader consensus reflects Powell’s completed term as chair in May 2026, the absence of any subsequent charges or active investigations, and the political nature of the earlier inquiry that failed to produce prosecutable facts. While tail risks remain remote, renewed politically motivated scrutiny or unrelated personal legal matters could theoretically alter the outlook before year-end 2026.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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