Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with resilient economic data, has driven market-implied odds overwhelmingly toward “Other” at 92.5% for the July–October sequence. The July 28–29 FOMC meeting held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% with three dissents favoring a hike, while futures now price a near-certain 25-basis-point increase at the September 15–16 meeting (with dot plot) and scope for further tightening in October. This pricing reflects trader consensus on the need for policy tightening to re-anchor inflation expectations, contrasting sharply with the listed pause- or cut-only paths. A sharper-than-expected labor-market deterioration or rapid disinflation in upcoming CPI and PCE releases could still alter the path, though current data trajectories support the elevated-rate outlook.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Other 94%
Pause–Pause–Pause 6%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$774,633 交易量
$774,633 交易量
2026-10-28
Pause–Pause–Pause
6%
Pause–Pause–Cut
1%
Pause–Cut–Pause
<1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
<1%
Other
94%
Other 94%
Pause–Pause–Pause 6%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$774,633 交易量
$774,633 交易量
2026-10-28
Pause–Pause–Pause
$262,324 交易量
6%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$68,689 交易量
1%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$44,785 交易量
<1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$29,522 交易量
<1%
Other
$325,826 交易量
94%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with resilient economic data, has driven market-implied odds overwhelmingly toward “Other” at 92.5% for the July–October sequence. The July 28–29 FOMC meeting held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% with three dissents favoring a hike, while futures now price a near-certain 25-basis-point increase at the September 15–16 meeting (with dot plot) and scope for further tightening in October. This pricing reflects trader consensus on the need for policy tightening to re-anchor inflation expectations, contrasting sharply with the listed pause- or cut-only paths. A sharper-than-expected labor-market deterioration or rapid disinflation in upcoming CPI and PCE releases could still alter the path, though current data trajectories support the elevated-rate outlook.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
市場開放時間： Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
交易量
$774,633結束日期
2026-10-28市場開放時間
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETThe FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with resilient economic data, has driven market-implied odds overwhelmingly toward “Other” at 92.5% for the July–October sequence. The July 28–29 FOMC meeting held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% with three dissents favoring a hike, while futures now price a near-certain 25-basis-point increase at the September 15–16 meeting (with dot plot) and scope for further tightening in October. This pricing reflects trader consensus on the need for policy tightening to re-anchor inflation expectations, contrasting sharply with the listed pause- or cut-only paths. A sharper-than-expected labor-market deterioration or rapid disinflation in upcoming CPI and PCE releases could still alter the path, though current data trajectories support the elevated-rate outlook.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
交易量
$774,633結束日期
2026-10-28市場開放時間
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETPersistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with resilient economic data, has driven market-implied odds overwhelmingly toward “Other” at 92.5% for the July–October sequence. The July 28–29 FOMC meeting held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% with three dissents favoring a hike, while futures now price a near-certain 25-basis-point increase at the September 15–16 meeting (with dot plot) and scope for further tightening in October. This pricing reflects trader consensus on the need for policy tightening to re-anchor inflation expectations, contrasting sharply with the listed pause- or cut-only paths. A sharper-than-expected labor-market deterioration or rapid disinflation in upcoming CPI and PCE releases could still alter the path, though current data trajectories support the elevated-rate outlook.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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Frequently Asked Questions