The Justice Department’s April 2026 closure of its probe into Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony on the $2.46 billion headquarters renovation remains the dominant factor keeping implied probabilities of federal charges near zero through year-end. A federal judge quashed related subpoenas in March, citing no evidence of criminal conduct beyond political friction over monetary policy, and referred the matter to the Fed inspector general, who previously found no fraud. With the investigation terminated and no new activity reported since, Polymarket trader consensus—backed by real capital—prices indictment risk at minimal levels. Powell’s completed term as chair and ongoing board tenure introduce no fresh legal catalysts ahead of the December 31, 2026 resolution.