Resilient U.S. economic data through August 2026 underpin the 92.4% market-implied probability against a Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027. The unemployment rate holds near 4.1%, nonfarm payrolls show steady gains, and the Fed funds target range remains 3.50–3.75% amid hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh. Elevated inflation from energy and tariff effects has prompted consideration of potential hikes rather than easing, with economist surveys and SEP projections pointing to any cuts only in 2027. Trader consensus reflects this stable baseline, where monetary policy faces no immediate crisis-driven pressure to act outside scheduled meetings. A sharp deterioration in labor markets, severe financial stress, or major geopolitical shock triggering rapid contraction could still shift odds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
8% 機率
$212,636 交易量
$212,636 交易量
2026-12-31
是
8% 機率
$212,636 交易量
$212,636 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.Resilient U.S. economic data through August 2026 underpin the 92.4% market-implied probability against a Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027. The unemployment rate holds near 4.1%, nonfarm payrolls show steady gains, and the Fed funds target range remains 3.50–3.75% amid hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh. Elevated inflation from energy and tariff effects has prompted consideration of potential hikes rather than easing, with economist surveys and SEP projections pointing to any cuts only in 2027. Trader consensus reflects this stable baseline, where monetary policy faces no immediate crisis-driven pressure to act outside scheduled meetings. A sharp deterioration in labor markets, severe financial stress, or major geopolitical shock triggering rapid contraction could still shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
市場開放時間： Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ET
交易量
$212,636結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.Resilient U.S. economic data through August 2026 underpin the 92.4% market-implied probability against a Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027. The unemployment rate holds near 4.1%, nonfarm payrolls show steady gains, and the Fed funds target range remains 3.50–3.75% amid hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh. Elevated inflation from energy and tariff effects has prompted consideration of potential hikes rather than easing, with economist surveys and SEP projections pointing to any cuts only in 2027. Trader consensus reflects this stable baseline, where monetary policy faces no immediate crisis-driven pressure to act outside scheduled meetings. A sharp deterioration in labor markets, severe financial stress, or major geopolitical shock triggering rapid contraction could still shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
交易量
$212,636結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResilient U.S. economic data through August 2026 underpin the 92.4% market-implied probability against a Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027. The unemployment rate holds near 4.1%, nonfarm payrolls show steady gains, and the Fed funds target range remains 3.50–3.75% amid hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh. Elevated inflation from energy and tariff effects has prompted consideration of potential hikes rather than easing, with economist surveys and SEP projections pointing to any cuts only in 2027. Trader consensus reflects this stable baseline, where monetary policy faces no immediate crisis-driven pressure to act outside scheduled meetings. A sharp deterioration in labor markets, severe financial stress, or major geopolitical shock triggering rapid contraction could still shift odds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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