The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to 4.96–4.97% in mid-September 2026, up roughly 90–100 basis points from early-year levels and approaching its highest marks since late 2023. Persistent inflation pressures, including elevated oil prices tied to geopolitical tensions, have lifted market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting to around 70%. Heavy Treasury supply amid federal deficits exceeding $1.9 trillion, a rising term premium, and competing corporate issuance for AI infrastructure have also pushed real yields higher. Traders are monitoring upcoming CPI, PCE, and employment data for signals on whether yields test or breach 5% before year-end resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於2027年之前， 10年期美國國庫券孳息率會走多高？
2027年之前， 10年期美國國庫券孳息率會走多高？
$390,006 交易量
2026-12-30
5.0%
90%
5.1%
65%
5.2%
33%
5.5%
10%
5.7%
8%
6.0%
3%
$390,006 交易量
5.0%
$111,586 交易量
90%
5.1%
$3,835 交易量
65%
5.2%
$55,620 交易量
33%
5.5%
$18,277 交易量
10%
5.7%
$9,914 交易量
8%
6.0%
$8,631 交易量
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to 4.96–4.97% in mid-September 2026, up roughly 90–100 basis points from early-year levels and approaching its highest marks since late 2023. Persistent inflation pressures, including elevated oil prices tied to geopolitical tensions, have lifted market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting to around 70%. Heavy Treasury supply amid federal deficits exceeding $1.9 trillion, a rising term premium, and competing corporate issuance for AI infrastructure have also pushed real yields higher. Traders are monitoring upcoming CPI, PCE, and employment data for signals on whether yields test or breach 5% before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
市場開放時間： Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ET
交易量
$390,006結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to 4.96–4.97% in mid-September 2026, up roughly 90–100 basis points from early-year levels and approaching its highest marks since late 2023. Persistent inflation pressures, including elevated oil prices tied to geopolitical tensions, have lifted market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting to around 70%. Heavy Treasury supply amid federal deficits exceeding $1.9 trillion, a rising term premium, and competing corporate issuance for AI infrastructure have also pushed real yields higher. Traders are monitoring upcoming CPI, PCE, and employment data for signals on whether yields test or breach 5% before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
交易量
$390,006結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ETThe 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to 4.96–4.97% in mid-September 2026, up roughly 90–100 basis points from early-year levels and approaching its highest marks since late 2023. Persistent inflation pressures, including elevated oil prices tied to geopolitical tensions, have lifted market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting to around 70%. Heavy Treasury supply amid federal deficits exceeding $1.9 trillion, a rising term premium, and competing corporate issuance for AI infrastructure have also pushed real yields higher. Traders are monitoring upcoming CPI, PCE, and employment data for signals on whether yields test or breach 5% before year-end resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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