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icon for 2027年之前， 10年期美國國庫券孳息率有多低？
經濟艙·商務

2027年之前， 10年期美國國庫券孳息率有多低？

icon for 2027年之前， 10年期美國國庫券孳息率有多低？
經濟艙·商務

2027年之前， 10年期美國國庫券孳息率有多低？

$250,469 交易量

2026-12-30
Polymarket

$250,469 交易量

Polymarket

3.9%

$50,070 交易量

9%

3.8%

$52,865 交易量

6%

3.7%

$28,035 交易量

5%

3.6%

$6,185 交易量

5%

3.5%

$39,256 交易量

5%

3.0%

$1,162 交易量

3%

2.0%

$564 交易量

2%

1.0%

$40,572 交易量

2%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to approximately 4.86% as of September 10, 2026, near its highest levels since late 2023, driven primarily by persistent inflation pressures from elevated oil prices linked to geopolitical tensions, robust labor market data, and shifting market-implied odds toward Federal Reserve policy holds or modest hikes rather than cuts. The Fed funds rate sits at 3.50-3.75%, with recent communications and economic projections indicating a cautious stance amid sticky core inflation readings. Heavy Treasury supply, fiscal deficit concerns, and rising term premium have added upward pressure on longer-dated yields despite occasional buyback operations. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming PPI and CPI releases plus the next FOMC meeting, which could further shape trader expectations for the yield path through year-end 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
交易量
$250,469
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET

結算方

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to approximately 4.86% as of September 10, 2026, near its highest levels since late 2023, driven primarily by persistent inflation pressures from elevated oil prices linked to geopolitical tensions, robust labor market data, and shifting market-implied odds toward Federal Reserve policy holds or modest hikes rather than cuts. The Fed funds rate sits at 3.50-3.75%, with recent communications and economic projections indicating a cautious stance amid sticky core inflation readings. Heavy Treasury supply, fiscal deficit concerns, and rising term premium have added upward pressure on longer-dated yields despite occasional buyback operations. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming PPI and CPI releases plus the next FOMC meeting, which could further shape trader expectations for the yield path through year-end 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
交易量
$250,469
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET

結算方

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"2027年之前， 10年期美國國庫券孳息率有多低？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "4.0%" at 100%, followed by "3.9%" at 9%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2027年之前， 10年期美國國庫券孳息率有多低？" has generated $250.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 12, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2027年之前， 10年期美國國庫券孳息率有多低？," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2027年之前， 10年期美國國庫券孳息率有多低？" is "4.0%" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "3.9%" at 9%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2027年之前， 10年期美國國庫券孳息率有多低？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.