Persistent supply disruptions from the 2026 Iran conflict, including restrictions on Strait of Hormuz transit and tanker attacks, represent the dominant driver pushing Brent and WTI above $100 per barrel in September 2026, with recent spikes exceeding $107 amid intensified Gulf hostilities. This follows earlier 2026 peaks near $120 and reflects roughly 8-10 million barrels per day of shut-in Gulf production, steepening backwardation and widening physical premiums. Countervailing forces include demand destruction, with IEA and OPEC lowering 2026 consumption forecasts due to elevated prices, plus releases from strategic reserves. WTI’s nominal all-time high near $147 from 2008 remains distant, though sustained escalation or further logistical breakdowns could narrow the gap before year-end resolution catalysts like potential ceasefires or OPEC+ quota reviews.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$4,056,699 交易量
2026-09-30
September 30
1%
December 31
13%
$4,056,699 交易量
September 30
$1,926,505 交易量
1%
December 31
$1,339,225 交易量
13%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures. If finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period has not been published on the CME Group website within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the data published through all CME Group channels up to that point.Persistent supply disruptions from the 2026 Iran conflict, including restrictions on Strait of Hormuz transit and tanker attacks, represent the dominant driver pushing Brent and WTI above $100 per barrel in September 2026, with recent spikes exceeding $107 amid intensified Gulf hostilities. This follows earlier 2026 peaks near $120 and reflects roughly 8-10 million barrels per day of shut-in Gulf production, steepening backwardation and widening physical premiums. Countervailing forces include demand destruction, with IEA and OPEC lowering 2026 consumption forecasts due to elevated prices, plus releases from strategic reserves. WTI’s nominal all-time high near $147 from 2008 remains distant, though sustained escalation or further logistical breakdowns could narrow the gap before year-end resolution catalysts like potential ceasefires or OPEC+ quota reviews.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures. If finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period has not been published on the CME Group website within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the data published through all CME Group channels up to that point.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures. If finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period has not been published on the CME Group website within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the data published through all CME Group channels up to that point.
市場開放時間： Apr 30, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
交易量
$4,056,699結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Apr 30, 2026, 2:38 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures. If finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period has not been published on the CME Group website within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the data published through all CME Group channels up to that point.Persistent supply disruptions from the 2026 Iran conflict, including restrictions on Strait of Hormuz transit and tanker attacks, represent the dominant driver pushing Brent and WTI above $100 per barrel in September 2026, with recent spikes exceeding $107 amid intensified Gulf hostilities. This follows earlier 2026 peaks near $120 and reflects roughly 8-10 million barrels per day of shut-in Gulf production, steepening backwardation and widening physical premiums. Countervailing forces include demand destruction, with IEA and OPEC lowering 2026 consumption forecasts due to elevated prices, plus releases from strategic reserves. WTI’s nominal all-time high near $147 from 2008 remains distant, though sustained escalation or further logistical breakdowns could narrow the gap before year-end resolution catalysts like potential ceasefires or OPEC+ quota reviews.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures. If finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period has not been published on the CME Group website within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the data published through all CME Group channels up to that point.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures. If finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period has not been published on the CME Group website within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the data published through all CME Group channels up to that point.
交易量
$4,056,699結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Apr 30, 2026, 2:38 PM ETPersistent supply disruptions from the 2026 Iran conflict, including restrictions on Strait of Hormuz transit and tanker attacks, represent the dominant driver pushing Brent and WTI above $100 per barrel in September 2026, with recent spikes exceeding $107 amid intensified Gulf hostilities. This follows earlier 2026 peaks near $120 and reflects roughly 8-10 million barrels per day of shut-in Gulf production, steepening backwardation and widening physical premiums. Countervailing forces include demand destruction, with IEA and OPEC lowering 2026 consumption forecasts due to elevated prices, plus releases from strategic reserves. WTI’s nominal all-time high near $147 from 2008 remains distant, though sustained escalation or further logistical breakdowns could narrow the gap before year-end resolution catalysts like potential ceasefires or OPEC+ quota reviews.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions