**Robust U.S. economic data and sticky inflation have anchored the 70.5% market-implied probability for a Pause–Pause–Pause sequence across the June, July, and September 2026 FOMC meetings.** May CPI rose 0.5% with year-over-year readings near 4.2%, while the labor market added 172,000 jobs and unemployment held at 4.3%, supporting the Fed’s current 3.50–3.75% federal funds rate target. Traders view these conditions as consistent with the central bank’s data-dependent stance and higher-for-longer path, reinforced by above-trend growth and limited progress toward the 2% inflation goal. Recent communications and the latest dot plot projections further embed expectations of steady policy absent sharper disinflation or labor-market weakening. Key near-term catalysts include the June 16-17 FOMC statement, upcoming PCE and employment reports, and any signals from the incoming chair on the neutral rate. Market pricing leaves modest room for a single 25-basis-point cut later in the period if incoming data cool materially.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Pause–Pause–Pause 71%
Other 12%
Pause–Pause–Cut 9.6%
Pause–Cut–Pause 2.0%
最新
最新
2026-09-16
Cut–Pause–Pause
1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
1%
Cut–Cut–Pause
<1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
71%
Pause–Pause–Cut
10%
Pause–Cut–Pause
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
12%
Pause–Pause–Pause 71%
Other 12%
Pause–Pause–Cut 9.6%
Pause–Cut–Pause 2.0%
最新
最新
2026-09-16
Cut–Pause–Pause
$488 交易量
1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$540 交易量
1%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$340 交易量
<1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$270 交易量
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$1,103 交易量
71%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$331 交易量
10%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$230 交易量
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$276 交易量
1%
Other
$318 交易量
12%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Robust U.S. economic data and sticky inflation have anchored the 70.5% market-implied probability for a Pause–Pause–Pause sequence across the June, July, and September 2026 FOMC meetings.** May CPI rose 0.5% with year-over-year readings near 4.2%, while the labor market added 172,000 jobs and unemployment held at 4.3%, supporting the Fed’s current 3.50–3.75% federal funds rate target. Traders view these conditions as consistent with the central bank’s data-dependent stance and higher-for-longer path, reinforced by above-trend growth and limited progress toward the 2% inflation goal. Recent communications and the latest dot plot projections further embed expectations of steady policy absent sharper disinflation or labor-market weakening. Key near-term catalysts include the June 16-17 FOMC statement, upcoming PCE and employment reports, and any signals from the incoming chair on the neutral rate. Market pricing leaves modest room for a single 25-basis-point cut later in the period if incoming data cool materially.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
市場開放時間： Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
交易量
$3,896結束日期
2026-09-16市場開放時間
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Robust U.S. economic data and sticky inflation have anchored the 70.5% market-implied probability for a Pause–Pause–Pause sequence across the June, July, and September 2026 FOMC meetings.** May CPI rose 0.5% with year-over-year readings near 4.2%, while the labor market added 172,000 jobs and unemployment held at 4.3%, supporting the Fed’s current 3.50–3.75% federal funds rate target. Traders view these conditions as consistent with the central bank’s data-dependent stance and higher-for-longer path, reinforced by above-trend growth and limited progress toward the 2% inflation goal. Recent communications and the latest dot plot projections further embed expectations of steady policy absent sharper disinflation or labor-market weakening. Key near-term catalysts include the June 16-17 FOMC statement, upcoming PCE and employment reports, and any signals from the incoming chair on the neutral rate. Market pricing leaves modest room for a single 25-basis-point cut later in the period if incoming data cool materially.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
交易量
$3,896結束日期
2026-09-16市場開放時間
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Robust U.S. economic data and sticky inflation have anchored the 70.5% market-implied probability for a Pause–Pause–Pause sequence across the June, July, and September 2026 FOMC meetings.** May CPI rose 0.5% with year-over-year readings near 4.2%, while the labor market added 172,000 jobs and unemployment held at 4.3%, supporting the Fed’s current 3.50–3.75% federal funds rate target. Traders view these conditions as consistent with the central bank’s data-dependent stance and higher-for-longer path, reinforced by above-trend growth and limited progress toward the 2% inflation goal. Recent communications and the latest dot plot projections further embed expectations of steady policy absent sharper disinflation or labor-market weakening. Key near-term catalysts include the June 16-17 FOMC statement, upcoming PCE and employment reports, and any signals from the incoming chair on the neutral rate. Market pricing leaves modest room for a single 25-basis-point cut later in the period if incoming data cool materially.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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Frequently Asked Questions