Persistent inflation near 3.5% year-over-year, supply shocks in energy, and Middle East geopolitical tensions have kept the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75% through the June and July 2026 FOMC meetings, with the September 15-16 decision now imminent. Three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike in July signaled growing hawkish sentiment amid solid economic activity and stable unemployment. These conditions underpin the 88% market-implied probability on "Other" outcomes for the June-September sequence, as traders price in the risk of at least one tightening step versus repeated pauses. The 11.5% on Pause-Pause-Pause reflects limited conviction in an unchanged path through September amid incoming data and Chair Warsh's upcoming signals.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Other 88%
Pause–Pause–Pause 12%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$871,834 交易量
$871,834 交易量
2026-09-15
Pause–Pause–Pause
12%
Pause–Pause–Cut
<1%
Other
88%
Other 88%
Pause–Pause–Pause 12%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$871,834 交易量
$871,834 交易量
2026-09-15
Pause–Pause–Pause
$337,891 交易量
12%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$103,115 交易量
<1%
Other
$374,951 交易量
88%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation near 3.5% year-over-year, supply shocks in energy, and Middle East geopolitical tensions have kept the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75% through the June and July 2026 FOMC meetings, with the September 15-16 decision now imminent. Three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike in July signaled growing hawkish sentiment amid solid economic activity and stable unemployment. These conditions underpin the 88% market-implied probability on "Other" outcomes for the June-September sequence, as traders price in the risk of at least one tightening step versus repeated pauses. The 11.5% on Pause-Pause-Pause reflects limited conviction in an unchanged path through September amid incoming data and Chair Warsh's upcoming signals.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
市場開放時間： Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
交易量
$871,834結束日期
2026-09-16市場開放時間
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETThe FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation near 3.5% year-over-year, supply shocks in energy, and Middle East geopolitical tensions have kept the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75% through the June and July 2026 FOMC meetings, with the September 15-16 decision now imminent. Three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike in July signaled growing hawkish sentiment amid solid economic activity and stable unemployment. These conditions underpin the 88% market-implied probability on "Other" outcomes for the June-September sequence, as traders price in the risk of at least one tightening step versus repeated pauses. The 11.5% on Pause-Pause-Pause reflects limited conviction in an unchanged path through September amid incoming data and Chair Warsh's upcoming signals.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
交易量
$871,834結束日期
2026-09-16市場開放時間
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETPersistent inflation near 3.5% year-over-year, supply shocks in energy, and Middle East geopolitical tensions have kept the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75% through the June and July 2026 FOMC meetings, with the September 15-16 decision now imminent. Three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike in July signaled growing hawkish sentiment amid solid economic activity and stable unemployment. These conditions underpin the 88% market-implied probability on "Other" outcomes for the June-September sequence, as traders price in the risk of at least one tightening step versus repeated pauses. The 11.5% on Pause-Pause-Pause reflects limited conviction in an unchanged path through September amid incoming data and Chair Warsh's upcoming signals.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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