Multiple candidates in the October 9–10 first round of the French Socialist primary—Olivier Faure, Raphaël Glucksmann, Jérôme Guedj, Emmanuel Maurel, and Ségolène Royal—create a fragmented field that favors a runoff. Recent developments have heightened divisions, including the provisional exclusion of Philippe Brun over misconduct allegations and a reprimand issued to Ségolène Royal for personal attacks on Glucksmann during the campaign. Upcoming televised debates and the closed electorate of party members plus limited contributors further complicate consolidation behind any single contender before the October 16–17 second round. Trader consensus reflected in the 65.5% implied probability on “No” aligns with these structural and timing factors.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
30% 機率
最新
最新
2026-10-10
是
30% 機率
最新
最新
2026-10-10
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held.
If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.Multiple candidates in the October 9–10 first round of the French Socialist primary—Olivier Faure, Raphaël Glucksmann, Jérôme Guedj, Emmanuel Maurel, and Ségolène Royal—create a fragmented field that favors a runoff. Recent developments have heightened divisions, including the provisional exclusion of Philippe Brun over misconduct allegations and a reprimand issued to Ségolène Royal for personal attacks on Glucksmann during the campaign. Upcoming televised debates and the closed electorate of party members plus limited contributors further complicate consolidation behind any single contender before the October 16–17 second round. Trader consensus reflected in the 65.5% implied probability on “No” aligns with these structural and timing factors.
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held.
If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held.
If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
市場開放時間： Sep 9, 2026, 6:30 PM ET
交易量
$645結束日期
2026-10-10市場開放時間
Sep 9, 2026, 6:30 PM ETThe Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held.
If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.Multiple candidates in the October 9–10 first round of the French Socialist primary—Olivier Faure, Raphaël Glucksmann, Jérôme Guedj, Emmanuel Maurel, and Ségolène Royal—create a fragmented field that favors a runoff. Recent developments have heightened divisions, including the provisional exclusion of Philippe Brun over misconduct allegations and a reprimand issued to Ségolène Royal for personal attacks on Glucksmann during the campaign. Upcoming televised debates and the closed electorate of party members plus limited contributors further complicate consolidation behind any single contender before the October 16–17 second round. Trader consensus reflected in the 65.5% implied probability on “No” aligns with these structural and timing factors.
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held.
If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held.
If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
交易量
$645結束日期
2026-10-10市場開放時間
Sep 9, 2026, 6:30 PM ETMultiple candidates in the October 9–10 first round of the French Socialist primary—Olivier Faure, Raphaël Glucksmann, Jérôme Guedj, Emmanuel Maurel, and Ségolène Royal—create a fragmented field that favors a runoff. Recent developments have heightened divisions, including the provisional exclusion of Philippe Brun over misconduct allegations and a reprimand issued to Ségolène Royal for personal attacks on Glucksmann during the campaign. Upcoming televised debates and the closed electorate of party members plus limited contributors further complicate consolidation behind any single contender before the October 16–17 second round. Trader consensus reflected in the 65.5% implied probability on “No” aligns with these structural and timing factors.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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