Recent polling from early September places A Just Russia (SR) near or slightly above the 5% party-list threshold, with figures ranging from 4–6.4% among decided voters across FOM, WCIOM, and ExtremeScan surveys. SR’s campaign has emphasized veteran support and patriotic themes while nominating candidates nationwide, consistent with its role as a Kremlin-aligned systemic party. Analysts note that Russian electoral management has historically assisted such parties to clear the bar and sustain a controlled multi-party Duma, a factor reflected in the 64.5% implied probability. The three-day vote beginning September 18, combined with single-mandate results, introduces remaining uncertainty for traders assessing final party-list shares.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
66% 機率
最新
最新
2026-09-20
是
66% 機率
最新
最新
2026-09-20
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the A Just Russia (SR) party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the A Just Russia (SR) party list. Whether A Just Russia (SR) is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the A Just Russia (SR) party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Recent polling from early September places A Just Russia (SR) near or slightly above the 5% party-list threshold, with figures ranging from 4–6.4% among decided voters across FOM, WCIOM, and ExtremeScan surveys. SR’s campaign has emphasized veteran support and patriotic themes while nominating candidates nationwide, consistent with its role as a Kremlin-aligned systemic party. Analysts note that Russian electoral management has historically assisted such parties to clear the bar and sustain a controlled multi-party Duma, a factor reflected in the 64.5% implied probability. The three-day vote beginning September 18, combined with single-mandate results, introduces remaining uncertainty for traders assessing final party-list shares.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the A Just Russia (SR) party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the A Just Russia (SR) party list. Whether A Just Russia (SR) is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the A Just Russia (SR) party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the A Just Russia (SR) party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the A Just Russia (SR) party list. Whether A Just Russia (SR) is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the A Just Russia (SR) party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
市場開放時間： Sep 14, 2026, 5:12 PM ET
交易量
$1,710結束日期
2026-09-20市場開放時間
Sep 14, 2026, 5:12 PM ETParliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the A Just Russia (SR) party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the A Just Russia (SR) party list. Whether A Just Russia (SR) is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the A Just Russia (SR) party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Recent polling from early September places A Just Russia (SR) near or slightly above the 5% party-list threshold, with figures ranging from 4–6.4% among decided voters across FOM, WCIOM, and ExtremeScan surveys. SR’s campaign has emphasized veteran support and patriotic themes while nominating candidates nationwide, consistent with its role as a Kremlin-aligned systemic party. Analysts note that Russian electoral management has historically assisted such parties to clear the bar and sustain a controlled multi-party Duma, a factor reflected in the 64.5% implied probability. The three-day vote beginning September 18, combined with single-mandate results, introduces remaining uncertainty for traders assessing final party-list shares.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the A Just Russia (SR) party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the A Just Russia (SR) party list. Whether A Just Russia (SR) is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the A Just Russia (SR) party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the A Just Russia (SR) party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the A Just Russia (SR) party list. Whether A Just Russia (SR) is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the A Just Russia (SR) party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
交易量
$1,710結束日期
2026-09-20市場開放時間
Sep 14, 2026, 5:12 PM ETRecent polling from early September places A Just Russia (SR) near or slightly above the 5% party-list threshold, with figures ranging from 4–6.4% among decided voters across FOM, WCIOM, and ExtremeScan surveys. SR’s campaign has emphasized veteran support and patriotic themes while nominating candidates nationwide, consistent with its role as a Kremlin-aligned systemic party. Analysts note that Russian electoral management has historically assisted such parties to clear the bar and sustain a controlled multi-party Duma, a factor reflected in the 64.5% implied probability. The three-day vote beginning September 18, combined with single-mandate results, introduces remaining uncertainty for traders assessing final party-list shares.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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Frequently Asked Questions