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icon for 由…召開的下一次英國補選？
政治·英國

由…召開的下一次英國補選？

icon for 由…召開的下一次英國補選？
政治·英國

由…召開的下一次英國補選？

1月 1, 2027

1月 1, 2027

最新
2026-10-31
Polymarket

$124 交易量

Polymarket

10月31日

$52 交易量

17%

12月31日

$72 交易量

40%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in a UK parliamentary constituency is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify. Only a writ issued after market creation will count. The writ for the Holborn and St Pancras by-election, issued prior to market creation, will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.UK parliamentary by-elections are triggered when a seat becomes vacant through resignation or death, with the writ moved by convention at a time chosen by the party that previously held the constituency. As of mid-September 2026, the most recent parliamentary contests followed resignations by Reform UK leader Nigel Farage in Clacton (writ moved July 2026, poll 13 August) and Labour MP Josh Simons in Makerfield (May 2026, poll 18 June) to enable Andy Burnham’s candidacy. Former Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s resignation on 1 September 2026 to pursue international roles directly prompted the writ for Holborn and St Pancras, scheduled for 8 October. Additional vacancies could arise from personal decisions, internal party pressures, or procedural moves ahead of scheduled local contests and the next general election. Timing remains flexible within statutory limits once a vacancy occurs.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in a UK parliamentary constituency is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.

Only a writ issued after market creation will count. The writ for the Holborn and St Pancras by-election, issued prior to market creation, will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in a UK parliamentary constituency is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify. Only a writ issued after market creation will count. The writ for the Holborn and St Pancras by-election, issued prior to market creation, will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$124
結束日期
2027-01-01
市場開放時間
Sep 14, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

結算方

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in a UK parliamentary constituency is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify. Only a writ issued after market creation will count. The writ for the Holborn and St Pancras by-election, issued prior to market creation, will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.UK parliamentary by-elections are triggered when a seat becomes vacant through resignation or death, with the writ moved by convention at a time chosen by the party that previously held the constituency. As of mid-September 2026, the most recent parliamentary contests followed resignations by Reform UK leader Nigel Farage in Clacton (writ moved July 2026, poll 13 August) and Labour MP Josh Simons in Makerfield (May 2026, poll 18 June) to enable Andy Burnham’s candidacy. Former Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s resignation on 1 September 2026 to pursue international roles directly prompted the writ for Holborn and St Pancras, scheduled for 8 October. Additional vacancies could arise from personal decisions, internal party pressures, or procedural moves ahead of scheduled local contests and the next general election. Timing remains flexible within statutory limits once a vacancy occurs.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in a UK parliamentary constituency is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.

Only a writ issued after market creation will count. The writ for the Holborn and St Pancras by-election, issued prior to market creation, will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in a UK parliamentary constituency is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify. Only a writ issued after market creation will count. The writ for the Holborn and St Pancras by-election, issued prior to market creation, will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$124
結束日期
2027-01-01
市場開放時間
Sep 14, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

結算方

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"由…召開的下一次英國補選？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "12月31日" at 40%, followed by "10月31日" at 17%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 40¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 40% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"由…召開的下一次英國補選？" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 14, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "由…召開的下一次英國補選？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "由…召開的下一次英國補選？" is "12月31日" at 40%, meaning the market assigns a 40% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "10月31日" at 17%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "由…召開的下一次英國補選？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.