Incumbent Republican French Hill holds a strong structural edge in Arkansas’s 2nd district, an R+8 seat centered on Little Rock that delivered comfortable Republican margins in recent cycles. Most nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Likely Republican, citing Hill’s incumbency, committee leadership, and primary victory over a challenger. Democrat Chris Jones secured his nomination comfortably, and the DCCC added the seat to its target list in early August, citing suburban and urban turnout potential. A mid-August Hendrix College poll of likely voters showed Jones ahead 48-44, within the margin of error, yet broader forecasting models continue to project a double-digit Republican margin. Traders price the Republican outcome at 87 percent, reflecting the district’s partisan baseline and historical patterns over isolated survey results ahead of the November 3 general election.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$12,244 交易量
$12,244 交易量
2026-11-02
Republican Party
87%
Democratic Party
14%
$12,244 交易量
$12,244 交易量
2026-11-02
Republican Party
$4,224 交易量
87%
Democratic Party
$8,020 交易量
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican French Hill holds a strong structural edge in Arkansas’s 2nd district, an R+8 seat centered on Little Rock that delivered comfortable Republican margins in recent cycles. Most nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Likely Republican, citing Hill’s incumbency, committee leadership, and primary victory over a challenger. Democrat Chris Jones secured his nomination comfortably, and the DCCC added the seat to its target list in early August, citing suburban and urban turnout potential. A mid-August Hendrix College poll of likely voters showed Jones ahead 48-44, within the margin of error, yet broader forecasting models continue to project a double-digit Republican margin. Traders price the Republican outcome at 87 percent, reflecting the district’s partisan baseline and historical patterns over isolated survey results ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
交易量
$12,244結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican French Hill holds a strong structural edge in Arkansas’s 2nd district, an R+8 seat centered on Little Rock that delivered comfortable Republican margins in recent cycles. Most nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Likely Republican, citing Hill’s incumbency, committee leadership, and primary victory over a challenger. Democrat Chris Jones secured his nomination comfortably, and the DCCC added the seat to its target list in early August, citing suburban and urban turnout potential. A mid-August Hendrix College poll of likely voters showed Jones ahead 48-44, within the margin of error, yet broader forecasting models continue to project a double-digit Republican margin. Traders price the Republican outcome at 87 percent, reflecting the district’s partisan baseline and historical patterns over isolated survey results ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$12,244結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETIncumbent Republican French Hill holds a strong structural edge in Arkansas’s 2nd district, an R+8 seat centered on Little Rock that delivered comfortable Republican margins in recent cycles. Most nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Likely Republican, citing Hill’s incumbency, committee leadership, and primary victory over a challenger. Democrat Chris Jones secured his nomination comfortably, and the DCCC added the seat to its target list in early August, citing suburban and urban turnout potential. A mid-August Hendrix College poll of likely voters showed Jones ahead 48-44, within the margin of error, yet broader forecasting models continue to project a double-digit Republican margin. Traders price the Republican outcome at 87 percent, reflecting the district’s partisan baseline and historical patterns over isolated survey results ahead of the November 3 general election.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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