Incumbent Republican Rick Crawford’s entrenched position in Arkansas’s 1st congressional district drives the overwhelming trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. The rural northeastern district’s consistent Republican voting patterns, evidenced by Crawford’s 73-point margin in 2024, combine with uncontested primaries in March 2026 and all major forecasters rating the race Solid or Safe Republican. Democratic challenger Terri Yarbrough Green faces structural headwinds from limited party infrastructure and the district’s agricultural, conservative electorate. While national turnout shifts or unforeseen candidate developments before November 3 could theoretically narrow the gap, the seat’s partisan baseline makes any Democratic victory highly improbable under current conditions.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$26,556 交易量
$26,556 交易量
2026-11-02
共和黨
97%
民主黨
<1%
$26,556 交易量
$26,556 交易量
2026-11-02
共和黨
$16,297 交易量
97%
民主黨
$10,259 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Rick Crawford’s entrenched position in Arkansas’s 1st congressional district drives the overwhelming trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. The rural northeastern district’s consistent Republican voting patterns, evidenced by Crawford’s 73-point margin in 2024, combine with uncontested primaries in March 2026 and all major forecasters rating the race Solid or Safe Republican. Democratic challenger Terri Yarbrough Green faces structural headwinds from limited party infrastructure and the district’s agricultural, conservative electorate. While national turnout shifts or unforeseen candidate developments before November 3 could theoretically narrow the gap, the seat’s partisan baseline makes any Democratic victory highly improbable under current conditions.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
交易量
$26,556結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Rick Crawford’s entrenched position in Arkansas’s 1st congressional district drives the overwhelming trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. The rural northeastern district’s consistent Republican voting patterns, evidenced by Crawford’s 73-point margin in 2024, combine with uncontested primaries in March 2026 and all major forecasters rating the race Solid or Safe Republican. Democratic challenger Terri Yarbrough Green faces structural headwinds from limited party infrastructure and the district’s agricultural, conservative electorate. While national turnout shifts or unforeseen candidate developments before November 3 could theoretically narrow the gap, the seat’s partisan baseline makes any Democratic victory highly improbable under current conditions.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$26,556結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETIncumbent Republican Rick Crawford’s entrenched position in Arkansas’s 1st congressional district drives the overwhelming trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. The rural northeastern district’s consistent Republican voting patterns, evidenced by Crawford’s 73-point margin in 2024, combine with uncontested primaries in March 2026 and all major forecasters rating the race Solid or Safe Republican. Democratic challenger Terri Yarbrough Green faces structural headwinds from limited party infrastructure and the district’s agricultural, conservative electorate. While national turnout shifts or unforeseen candidate developments before November 3 could theoretically narrow the gap, the seat’s partisan baseline makes any Democratic victory highly improbable under current conditions.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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