The U.S. Constitution sets a fixed electoral calendar for midterm congressional elections every two years, with no procedural mechanisms or recent legislative actions suggesting alteration to the November 2026 schedule. Trader consensus at 98% implied probability for the elections occurring as planned reflects this structural certainty, combined with the absence of major disruptions such as declared national emergencies, congressional delays, or court rulings affecting ballot access or voting timelines. Historical precedent shows these contests proceeding even amid crises, reinforcing market pricing. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes include unforeseen escalations in security threats, severe public health events, or unprecedented legal challenges reaching the Supreme Court that might force limited postponements in specific states, though none appear imminent based on current developments.