Republicans maintain a narrow 218-seat House majority heading into the final weeks before the November 2026 midterms, supported by the resolution of recent special elections without net Democratic gains sufficient to flip control. The short remaining timeline limits opportunities for additional vacancies or procedural shifts, while historical patterns show mid-congressional majority changes through deaths, resignations, or specials remain rare absent widespread turnover. Trader pricing at 98.8% for no pre-midterm loss reflects this structural stability and the absence of developments that would erode the margin. Remaining vacancies in safe districts and the requirement for net seat losses exceeding current buffers represent the primary variables that could still alter the outcome before polls open.