Ongoing tensions in the Israel-Iran conflict and risks from ballistic missiles and drones linked to Hezbollah and Houthi activity remain the dominant factors shaping assessments of Israeli airspace restrictions. Israeli authorities have closed and reopened the Tel Aviv FIR multiple times earlier in 2026 amid strikes and retaliations, with the airspace currently open but subject to volatile security conditions that have kept most international carriers away from Ben Gurion Airport. An EASA advisory issued August 31 and valid through September 30 highlights elevated risks in the region, while early-September recommendations for temporary Ben Gurion closures followed fresh Iranian missile activity. Trader consensus in the associated prediction market assigns high probability to a qualifying broad closure by September 30, reflecting these sustained military and regulatory pressures within the resolution window.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$30,483,494 交易量
2026-09-30
9月30日
97%
$30,483,494 交易量
9月30日
$2,890,363 交易量
97%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing tensions in the Israel-Iran conflict and risks from ballistic missiles and drones linked to Hezbollah and Houthi activity remain the dominant factors shaping assessments of Israeli airspace restrictions. Israeli authorities have closed and reopened the Tel Aviv FIR multiple times earlier in 2026 amid strikes and retaliations, with the airspace currently open but subject to volatile security conditions that have kept most international carriers away from Ben Gurion Airport. An EASA advisory issued August 31 and valid through September 30 highlights elevated risks in the region, while early-September recommendations for temporary Ben Gurion closures followed fresh Iranian missile activity. Trader consensus in the associated prediction market assigns high probability to a qualifying broad closure by September 30, reflecting these sustained military and regulatory pressures within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Aug 18, 2026, 12:25 PM ET
交易量
$30,483,494結束日期
2026-10-01市場開放時間
Aug 18, 2026, 12:25 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing tensions in the Israel-Iran conflict and risks from ballistic missiles and drones linked to Hezbollah and Houthi activity remain the dominant factors shaping assessments of Israeli airspace restrictions. Israeli authorities have closed and reopened the Tel Aviv FIR multiple times earlier in 2026 amid strikes and retaliations, with the airspace currently open but subject to volatile security conditions that have kept most international carriers away from Ben Gurion Airport. An EASA advisory issued August 31 and valid through September 30 highlights elevated risks in the region, while early-September recommendations for temporary Ben Gurion closures followed fresh Iranian missile activity. Trader consensus in the associated prediction market assigns high probability to a qualifying broad closure by September 30, reflecting these sustained military and regulatory pressures within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$30,483,494結束日期
2026-10-01市場開放時間
Aug 18, 2026, 12:25 PM ETOngoing tensions in the Israel-Iran conflict and risks from ballistic missiles and drones linked to Hezbollah and Houthi activity remain the dominant factors shaping assessments of Israeli airspace restrictions. Israeli authorities have closed and reopened the Tel Aviv FIR multiple times earlier in 2026 amid strikes and retaliations, with the airspace currently open but subject to volatile security conditions that have kept most international carriers away from Ben Gurion Airport. An EASA advisory issued August 31 and valid through September 30 highlights elevated risks in the region, while early-September recommendations for temporary Ben Gurion closures followed fresh Iranian missile activity. Trader consensus in the associated prediction market assigns high probability to a qualifying broad closure by September 30, reflecting these sustained military and regulatory pressures within the resolution window.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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