Israel’s civilian airspace has remained open in recent weeks despite persistent regional risks from Iranian missile and drone threats and activity by proxies including Hezbollah. Earlier in 2026, Israeli authorities imposed repeated broad closures during direct exchanges with Iran, including after strikes and retaliatory barrages, before reopening operations with limited commercial service. As of early September, EASA and Italian aviation notices continue to flag elevated caution through at least late September, yet no new nationwide suspension has been ordered. High-volume Polymarket trading reflects trader consensus that current conditions and de-escalation signals make a qualifying major closure by the October 1 resolution unlikely, though sudden escalation tied to Iran or Lebanon developments could still alter the timeline within the window.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$30,426,762 交易量
2026-09-30
9月30日
98%
$30,426,762 交易量
9月30日
$2,833,603 交易量
98%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Israel’s civilian airspace has remained open in recent weeks despite persistent regional risks from Iranian missile and drone threats and activity by proxies including Hezbollah. Earlier in 2026, Israeli authorities imposed repeated broad closures during direct exchanges with Iran, including after strikes and retaliatory barrages, before reopening operations with limited commercial service. As of early September, EASA and Italian aviation notices continue to flag elevated caution through at least late September, yet no new nationwide suspension has been ordered. High-volume Polymarket trading reflects trader consensus that current conditions and de-escalation signals make a qualifying major closure by the October 1 resolution unlikely, though sudden escalation tied to Iran or Lebanon developments could still alter the timeline within the window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Aug 18, 2026, 12:25 PM ET
交易量
$30,426,762結束日期
2026-10-01市場開放時間
Aug 18, 2026, 12:25 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Israel’s civilian airspace has remained open in recent weeks despite persistent regional risks from Iranian missile and drone threats and activity by proxies including Hezbollah. Earlier in 2026, Israeli authorities imposed repeated broad closures during direct exchanges with Iran, including after strikes and retaliatory barrages, before reopening operations with limited commercial service. As of early September, EASA and Italian aviation notices continue to flag elevated caution through at least late September, yet no new nationwide suspension has been ordered. High-volume Polymarket trading reflects trader consensus that current conditions and de-escalation signals make a qualifying major closure by the October 1 resolution unlikely, though sudden escalation tied to Iran or Lebanon developments could still alter the timeline within the window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$30,426,762結束日期
2026-10-01市場開放時間
Aug 18, 2026, 12:25 PM ETIsrael’s civilian airspace has remained open in recent weeks despite persistent regional risks from Iranian missile and drone threats and activity by proxies including Hezbollah. Earlier in 2026, Israeli authorities imposed repeated broad closures during direct exchanges with Iran, including after strikes and retaliatory barrages, before reopening operations with limited commercial service. As of early September, EASA and Italian aviation notices continue to flag elevated caution through at least late September, yet no new nationwide suspension has been ordered. High-volume Polymarket trading reflects trader consensus that current conditions and de-escalation signals make a qualifying major closure by the October 1 resolution unlikely, though sudden escalation tied to Iran or Lebanon developments could still alter the timeline within the window.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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