Recent U.S.-Iran hostilities, including February 2026 airstrikes and subsequent tit-for-tat exchanges around the Strait of Hormuz, have centered on missile and air operations rather than ground forces. A June 2026 memorandum of understanding initiated negotiations on sanctions relief, nuclear issues, and navigation, though sporadic strikes continue into September. President Trump has publicly stated the conflict should conclude after the November 2026 midterms, with administration comments and military analyses emphasizing limited objectives over large-scale troop commitments. Analysts note that a full invasion would require extensive resources and carry high risks, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the 83.5% implied probability for no U.S. invasion before 2027. Ongoing diplomacy and post-election timelines further shape this positioning.