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政治·委內瑞拉

美國會在2026年入侵哥倫比亞嗎？

icon for 美國會在2026年入侵哥倫比亞嗎？
政治·委內瑞拉

美國會在2026年入侵哥倫比亞嗎？

是

4% 機率
Polymarket

$147,382 交易量

是

4% 機率
Polymarket

$147,382 交易量

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Diplomatic de-escalation after early 2026 tensions has anchored trader consensus against a U.S. invasion of Colombia this year. Following U.S. military action in Venezuela, pointed remarks by President Trump on drug trafficking prompted sharp responses from President Petro, yet a February White House meeting and subsequent counternarcotics coordination reduced friction. Colombia’s status as a long-standing security partner, established military-to-military ties, and the May 2026 presidential election—expected to yield a government more aligned with Washington—have reinforced expectations of managed bilateral pressure rather than territorial offensive. The implied probability near 96 percent for “No” reflects this assessment of limited escalation paths. Late-year shifts remain possible if cocaine flows surge sharply, bilateral talks collapse, or an unforeseen regional crisis prompts direct U.S. strikes, though none appear imminent.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$147,382
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Jan 5, 2026, 5:16 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Diplomatic de-escalation after early 2026 tensions has anchored trader consensus against a U.S. invasion of Colombia this year. Following U.S. military action in Venezuela, pointed remarks by President Trump on drug trafficking prompted sharp responses from President Petro, yet a February White House meeting and subsequent counternarcotics coordination reduced friction. Colombia’s status as a long-standing security partner, established military-to-military ties, and the May 2026 presidential election—expected to yield a government more aligned with Washington—have reinforced expectations of managed bilateral pressure rather than territorial offensive. The implied probability near 96 percent for “No” reflects this assessment of limited escalation paths. Late-year shifts remain possible if cocaine flows surge sharply, bilateral talks collapse, or an unforeseen regional crisis prompts direct U.S. strikes, though none appear imminent.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$147,382
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Jan 5, 2026, 5:16 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"美國會在2026年入侵哥倫比亞嗎？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "美國會在2026年入侵哥倫比亞嗎？" at 4%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 4¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 4% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "美國會在2026年入侵哥倫比亞嗎？" has generated $147.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 5, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "美國會在2026年入侵哥倫比亞嗎？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "美國會在2026年入侵哥倫比亞嗎？" is "美國會在2026年入侵哥倫比亞嗎？" at just 4%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "美國會在2026年入侵哥倫比亞嗎？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.