The U.S. conducted a limited January 2026 military operation in Venezuela that captured Nicolás Maduro but stopped short of full-scale invasion or territorial occupation, with officials explicitly framing it as a targeted strike against narco-terrorism rather than regime-change warfare. Subsequent developments include sanctions relief on oil exports, new general licenses for energy trade, diplomatic re-engagement, and U.S. influence over Venezuelan oil revenues and policy under acting authorities, all achieved through economic leverage and naval presence instead of ground forces. These steps align with historical patterns of maximum-pressure campaigns that favor targeted actions and financial controls over large-scale troop deployments. Markets therefore reflect trader consensus on low odds for a conventional invasion by any near-term deadline, as the administration has pursued objectives through existing tools while avoiding the costs and political risks of occupation. Upcoming factors include continued oil-quarantine enforcement and any shifts in Venezuelan interim governance that could alter escalation thresholds.