**US military operations against Venezuela peaked with a January 3, 2026, special operations raid that captured President Nicolás Maduro and his wife amid counternarcotics claims, followed by airstrikes on military sites but no sustained ground occupation or territorial control.** Polymarket markets have resolved the raid as falling short of an "invasion" under typical criteria requiring intent to establish control over portions of Venezuelan territory. As of September 2026, Delcy Rodríguez serves as acting president under a US-backed stabilization framework emphasizing economic recovery, amnesty measures, oil sector cooperation, and political negotiations rather than regime change by force. Earthquakes in June added humanitarian pressures, while ongoing talks between the interim government and opposition, plus US leverage through sanctions relief and energy deals, have reduced escalation risks. Trader consensus reflects these developments, with low implied probabilities for a full invasion by year-end absent major new triggers such as renewed hostilities or breakdown in transition talks.