US-Venezuela tensions center on counter-narcotics operations and regime pressure, with a January 2026 US special forces strike capturing Nicolás Maduro under Operation Absolute Resolve marking the primary recent catalyst. That limited action, involving targeted strikes on air defenses and infrastructure but no sustained ground occupation, has shaped trader views on whether further escalation qualifies as a full invasion by any resolution date. Naval and air assets remain positioned in the Caribbean for interdiction, while statements from US officials emphasize leverage for political transition without committing to broader military occupation. No major new military or diplomatic developments have emerged in the past month, leaving probabilities tied to whether ongoing pressure produces verifiable regime change or escalates before any cutoff. Structural factors like congressional war powers constraints and regional stability concerns continue to influence assessments of invasion likelihood.