Trader consensus reflects the absence of large-scale PLA mobilization, amphibious staging, or ultimatum rhetoric in recent months, despite record Chinese coast guard and research vessel activity around Taiwan through August and ongoing ADIZ incursions. Beijing continues gray-zone pressure and diplomatic protests over U.S. arms sales, yet maintains channels for a planned Trump-Xi summit later this month, signaling preference for incremental coercion over kinetic action before year-end. Taiwan’s defense enhancements and U.S. support further raise operational risks for any invasion attempt. Late developments such as a sudden collapse in bilateral talks or unexpected military escalation could still shift probabilities, though the remaining timeframe limits realistic pathways to full-scale conflict by December 2026.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
4% 機率
$41,193,604 交易量
$41,193,604 交易量
2026-12-30
賺 3.25% 收益
是
4% 機率
$41,193,604 交易量
$41,193,604 交易量
2026-12-30
賺 3.25% 收益
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects the absence of large-scale PLA mobilization, amphibious staging, or ultimatum rhetoric in recent months, despite record Chinese coast guard and research vessel activity around Taiwan through August and ongoing ADIZ incursions. Beijing continues gray-zone pressure and diplomatic protests over U.S. arms sales, yet maintains channels for a planned Trump-Xi summit later this month, signaling preference for incremental coercion over kinetic action before year-end. Taiwan’s defense enhancements and U.S. support further raise operational risks for any invasion attempt. Late developments such as a sudden collapse in bilateral talks or unexpected military escalation could still shift probabilities, though the remaining timeframe limits realistic pathways to full-scale conflict by December 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市場開放時間： Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
交易量
$41,193,604結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects the absence of large-scale PLA mobilization, amphibious staging, or ultimatum rhetoric in recent months, despite record Chinese coast guard and research vessel activity around Taiwan through August and ongoing ADIZ incursions. Beijing continues gray-zone pressure and diplomatic protests over U.S. arms sales, yet maintains channels for a planned Trump-Xi summit later this month, signaling preference for incremental coercion over kinetic action before year-end. Taiwan’s defense enhancements and U.S. support further raise operational risks for any invasion attempt. Late developments such as a sudden collapse in bilateral talks or unexpected military escalation could still shift probabilities, though the remaining timeframe limits realistic pathways to full-scale conflict by December 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$41,193,604結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETTrader consensus reflects the absence of large-scale PLA mobilization, amphibious staging, or ultimatum rhetoric in recent months, despite record Chinese coast guard and research vessel activity around Taiwan through August and ongoing ADIZ incursions. Beijing continues gray-zone pressure and diplomatic protests over U.S. arms sales, yet maintains channels for a planned Trump-Xi summit later this month, signaling preference for incremental coercion over kinetic action before year-end. Taiwan’s defense enhancements and U.S. support further raise operational risks for any invasion attempt. Late developments such as a sudden collapse in bilateral talks or unexpected military escalation could still shift probabilities, though the remaining timeframe limits realistic pathways to full-scale conflict by December 2026.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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