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地緣政治·中國

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

Market icon
地緣政治·中國

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

6月 30

9月 30

12月 31

6月 30, 2027

6月 30

9月 30

12月 31

6月 30, 2027

14% 機率
Polymarket
最新
14% 機率
Polymarket
最新
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.U.S. intelligence assessments released in mid-March 2026 concluded that China does not currently plan a Taiwan invasion by 2027 and lacks a fixed timeline, preferring unification through non-military coercion amid ongoing PLA readiness gaps and economic pressures. This lowered perceived risk aligns with trader consensus implying an 86% probability of no invasion by June 30, 2027, reinforced by a sharp drop in Chinese military flights around Taiwan since early March and no major escalation in drills or blockades. Recent U.S. arms sales exceeding $11 billion in late 2025 bolster Taiwan's asymmetric defenses, while Beijing's rhetoric, including Xi Jinping's January reaffirmation of "unstoppable" reunification, has not translated to actionable invasion signals. Unforeseen triggers like U.S. distractions or cross-strait incidents could still shift dynamics before resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$2,836
結束日期
2027-06-30
市場開放時間
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.U.S. intelligence assessments released in mid-March 2026 concluded that China does not currently plan a Taiwan invasion by 2027 and lacks a fixed timeline, preferring unification through non-military coercion amid ongoing PLA readiness gaps and economic pressures. This lowered perceived risk aligns with trader consensus implying an 86% probability of no invasion by June 30, 2027, reinforced by a sharp drop in Chinese military flights around Taiwan since early March and no major escalation in drills or blockades. Recent U.S. arms sales exceeding $11 billion in late 2025 bolster Taiwan's asymmetric defenses, while Beijing's rhetoric, including Xi Jinping's January reaffirmation of "unstoppable" reunification, has not translated to actionable invasion signals. Unforeseen triggers like U.S. distractions or cross-strait incidents could still shift dynamics before resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$2,836
結束日期
2027-06-30
市場開放時間
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 14% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 14¢, the market collectively assigns a 14% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 1, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?" is 14% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 14% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.