Trader consensus pricing a 75% chance against China invading Taiwan by December 31, 2027, stems primarily from the absence of observable People's Liberation Army mobilization for amphibious assault amid ongoing cross-strait deterrence. Recent PLA aircraft incursions and naval drills following Taiwan President Lai Ching-te's October 10 National Day speech elicited standard responses but showed no escalation toward invasion. US arms sales exceeding $2 billion this year, AUKUS submarine deals, and Philippine base access strengthen defenses, while China's economic slowdown and military readiness gaps—highlighted in Pentagon reports—dampen prospects. Xi Jinping's party congress remarks reiterated unification goals without timelines, aligning with historical caution against high-risk conflict. US election outcomes loom as a potential volatility factor.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於是
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2027
是
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市場開放時間： Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
交易量
$75結束日期
Dec 31, 2027市場開放時間
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$75結束日期
Dec 31, 2027市場開放時間
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus pricing a 75% chance against China invading Taiwan by December 31, 2027, stems primarily from the absence of observable People's Liberation Army mobilization for amphibious assault amid ongoing cross-strait deterrence. Recent PLA aircraft incursions and naval drills following Taiwan President Lai Ching-te's October 10 National Day speech elicited standard responses but showed no escalation toward invasion. US arms sales exceeding $2 billion this year, AUKUS submarine deals, and Philippine base access strengthen defenses, while China's economic slowdown and military readiness gaps—highlighted in Pentagon reports—dampen prospects. Xi Jinping's party congress remarks reiterated unification goals without timelines, aligning with historical caution against high-risk conflict. US election outcomes loom as a potential volatility factor.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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