Adam Smith's commanding position in the WA-09 race stems from the district's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in its D+22 partisan voting index and recent presidential results favoring Democratic nominees by double-digit margins. The longtime incumbent, seeking a sixteenth term after advancing from the August 2026 top-two primary, holds a substantial fundraising advantage and faces Republican challenger Doug Basler, a perennial candidate with limited resources who has lost prior bids by wide margins. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic. Traders price in these structural factors, including incumbency advantages and the absence of viable primary threats. Basler's path remains narrow absent major shifts such as national realignment, candidate-specific developments, or unexpected turnout anomalies before the November general election.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$51,337 交易量
$51,337 交易量
2026-11-02
亞當·史密斯（民主黨）
96%
Doug Basler（共和黨）
2%
$51,337 交易量
$51,337 交易量
2026-11-02
亞當·史密斯（民主黨）
$11,845 交易量
96%
Doug Basler（共和黨）
$39,492 交易量
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Adam Smith's commanding position in the WA-09 race stems from the district's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in its D+22 partisan voting index and recent presidential results favoring Democratic nominees by double-digit margins. The longtime incumbent, seeking a sixteenth term after advancing from the August 2026 top-two primary, holds a substantial fundraising advantage and faces Republican challenger Doug Basler, a perennial candidate with limited resources who has lost prior bids by wide margins. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic. Traders price in these structural factors, including incumbency advantages and the absence of viable primary threats. Basler's path remains narrow absent major shifts such as national realignment, candidate-specific developments, or unexpected turnout anomalies before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
交易量
$51,337結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Adam Smith's commanding position in the WA-09 race stems from the district's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in its D+22 partisan voting index and recent presidential results favoring Democratic nominees by double-digit margins. The longtime incumbent, seeking a sixteenth term after advancing from the August 2026 top-two primary, holds a substantial fundraising advantage and faces Republican challenger Doug Basler, a perennial candidate with limited resources who has lost prior bids by wide margins. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic. Traders price in these structural factors, including incumbency advantages and the absence of viable primary threats. Basler's path remains narrow absent major shifts such as national realignment, candidate-specific developments, or unexpected turnout anomalies before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$51,337結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETAdam Smith's commanding position in the WA-09 race stems from the district's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in its D+22 partisan voting index and recent presidential results favoring Democratic nominees by double-digit margins. The longtime incumbent, seeking a sixteenth term after advancing from the August 2026 top-two primary, holds a substantial fundraising advantage and faces Republican challenger Doug Basler, a perennial candidate with limited resources who has lost prior bids by wide margins. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic. Traders price in these structural factors, including incumbency advantages and the absence of viable primary threats. Basler's path remains narrow absent major shifts such as national realignment, candidate-specific developments, or unexpected turnout anomalies before the November general election.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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